KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

28%

16%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.8¢Risks 9.88u

EPSNO 80.2¢Risks 40.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.12u · EPS −40.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	46.5%	22.4%	60.9%	27.2%	19.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	46.5%	22.4%	60.8%	27.3%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	46.5%	24.0%	60.8%	27.3%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	46.5%	24.0%	60.8%	27.3%	19.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	46.5%	24.0%	60.8%	27.3%	19.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	46.5%	24.0%	57.8%	27.3%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	46.5%	24.0%	57.8%	27.3%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	46.5%	24.0%	57.8%	27.3%	19.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	35.7%	24.0%	57.8%	27.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:25+00:00	35.7%	24.0%	57.8%	27.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	35.7%	24.0%	57.8%	27.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	35.7%	24.0%	57.8%	27.3%	44.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	35.7%	24.0%	57.8%	37.2%	44.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	35.7%	26.8%	51.6%	37.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	35.7%	26.8%	51.6%	37.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	35.7%	26.8%	51.6%	37.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	35.1%	26.8%	51.6%	37.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	35.1%	26.8%	51.6%	37.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	35.1%	26.8%	51.6%	37.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	35.1%	26.8%	51.6%	37.3%	44.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	27.7%	18.1%	29.7%	18.6%	20.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	27.7%	18.1%	38.2%	18.6%	20.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	27.7%	18.1%	38.2%	18.6%	20.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	27.7%	18.1%	38.2%	18.6%	20.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	27.7%	18.1%	38.2%	18.6%	20.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	24.0%	18.1%	38.2%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	24.0%	18.1%	38.2%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	24.0%	18.1%	38.2%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	24.0%	18.1%	38.2%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	24.0%	13.6%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	24.0%	13.6%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	24.0%	13.6%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	24.0%	13.6%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	22.7%	13.6%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	22.7%	13.6%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	22.7%	13.0%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	22.7%	13.0%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	22.7%	13.0%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	22.7%	13.0%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	22.7%	13.0%	23.3%	17.6%	33.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	23.4%	13.0%	23.3%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	23.4%	13.0%	23.3%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	23.4%	13.0%	23.3%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	23.4%	13.0%	23.3%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	23.4%	13.0%	23.3%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	23.4%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	23.4%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	23.4%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	21.8%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	27.2%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	27.2%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	22.1%	9.5%	27.2%	18.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	24.3%	9.5%	27.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	24.3%	9.5%	27.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	24.3%	9.5%	27.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	24.3%	9.5%	27.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	24.3%	9.5%	27.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	24.3%	10.3%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	24.3%	10.3%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	24.3%	10.3%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	18.6%	10.3%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	18.5%	10.3%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	18.5%	9.7%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	18.5%	9.7%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	18.5%	9.7%	33.4%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	18.5%	9.7%	24.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	18.5%	9.7%	24.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	18.5%	9.7%	24.2%	14.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	24.2%	9.7%	24.2%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	24.2%	9.7%	24.2%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	24.2%	9.7%	24.2%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	24.2%	9.7%	24.2%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00	24.2%	9.7%	24.2%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	25.9%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	35.3%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	35.3%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	24.2%	9.1%	35.3%	7.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	27.9%	9.1%	35.3%	7.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	27.9%	9.1%	35.3%	7.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	27.9%	9.1%	35.3%	7.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	27.9%	9.1%	35.3%	7.5%	13.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	27.9%	10.5%	27.6%	15.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	27.9%	10.5%	27.6%	15.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	27.9%	10.5%	27.6%	15.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	27.9%	10.5%	27.6%	15.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	27.8%	10.5%	27.6%	15.6%	13.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	27.8%	10.5%	27.6%	15.6%	13.4%
2026-10-20T15:31:44+00:00	27.8%	11.7%	27.6%	15.6%	13.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	28%	78.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	76.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	76.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	76.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗