KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

32%

20%

12%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.15u · EPS −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	27.2%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	19.8%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	0.8%	17.1%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	16.6%	17.1%	1.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	14.0%	4.1%	1.0%	—	10.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	7.3%	10.0%	1.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	13.1%	11.9%	1.2%	14.9%	11.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	15.8%	—	—	8.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	40%	79.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	77.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗