KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

32%

20%

12%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.15u · EPS −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	34.5%	19.6%	31.9%	21.5%	16.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	34.5%	19.6%	31.9%	21.5%	16.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	34.5%	19.6%	31.9%	21.5%	16.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	34.5%	19.6%	31.9%	21.5%	16.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	41.1%	19.6%	31.9%	21.5%	16.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	41.1%	19.6%	31.9%	21.5%	16.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	41.1%	18.0%	31.9%	21.5%	16.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	41.1%	18.0%	31.9%	21.5%	16.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	41.1%	18.0%	29.2%	21.5%	16.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	41.1%	18.0%	29.2%	21.5%	16.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	41.1%	18.0%	29.2%	21.5%	16.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	31.9%	18.0%	29.2%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	31.9%	18.0%	29.2%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	31.9%	18.0%	29.2%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	31.9%	18.0%	29.2%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	31.9%	18.0%	29.2%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	31.9%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	37.0%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	37.0%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	35.7%	14.6%	37.0%	7.9%	46.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	37.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	37.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	37.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	37.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	37.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	34.2%	12.6%	35.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	34.2%	12.6%	35.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	34.2%	12.6%	35.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	32.2%	12.6%	35.0%	19.8%	37.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	32.2%	12.6%	35.0%	19.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	32.2%	12.0%	35.0%	19.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	32.2%	12.0%	35.0%	19.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	32.2%	12.0%	35.0%	19.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	32.2%	12.0%	33.4%	19.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	32.2%	12.0%	33.4%	19.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	32.2%	12.0%	33.4%	19.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	33.4%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	33.4%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	33.4%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	33.4%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	33.4%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	32.8%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	36.9%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	39.6%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	31.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	39.6%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	31.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	39.6%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	31.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	39.6%	12.0%	32.6%	14.1%	31.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	39.6%	12.1%	35.8%	19.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	39.6%	12.1%	35.8%	19.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	39.6%	12.1%	35.8%	19.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	39.6%	12.1%	35.8%	19.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	39.6%	12.1%	35.7%	19.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	39.6%	12.1%	35.7%	19.8%	31.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	40%	79.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	77.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗