KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

29%

26%

20%

16%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

ICONNO 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.30u · ICON −56.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	22.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	38.2%	73.7%	0.0%	—	32.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	1.5%	81.6%	7.4%	—	42.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	59.1%	78.9%	25.1%	—	66.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	44.4%	91.6%	14.9%	—	64.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	45.0%	88.8%	30.0%	—	68.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	1.0%	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	22.8%	57.0%	16.7%	—	55.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	50.0%	57.1%	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	10.2%	28.2%	7.0%	—	38.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	36.1%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	33.0%	27.1%	19.7%	—	35.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	40.1%	18.3%	—	—	36.3%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	49.0%	34.0%	15.1%	—	46.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	55.3%	35.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	52.2%	61.8%	11.9%	0.0%	46.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	47.8%	73.3%	0.0%	—	37.8%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	34.1%	62.6%	32.0%	—	44.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	37.0%	50.0%	14.5%	—	40.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	38.9%	38.9%	26.6%	47.5%	38.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	34.9%	34.9%	50.0%	—	44.9%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	43.3%	34.3%	35.6%	24.0%	31.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	40.3%	31.2%	40.3%	—	32.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	34.5%	25.6%	26.8%	28.0%	40.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	26.0%	24.8%	35.2%	—	38.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	16.1%	29.0%	39.1%	27.6%	29.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	25.4%	13.2%	38.6%	51.6%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	87.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	0.0818
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	29%	83.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.5069
IFS HRES	26%	83.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.5461
National Blend	25%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.5640
IFS Ensemble	20%	81.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.6448
ICON	16%	82.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.7056

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 19 · 03:09 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 86°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗