KBOI / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

29%

26%

20%

16%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

ICONNO 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.30u · ICON −56.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T07:20:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:09:07+00:00	79.0%	40.1%	35.2%	70.2%	61.4%
2026-09-19T03:54:16+00:00	79.0%	40.1%	35.2%	70.2%	61.4%
2026-09-19T04:39:21+00:00	79.0%	40.1%	35.2%	70.2%	33.6%
2026-09-19T05:24:26+00:00	79.0%	40.1%	35.2%	70.2%	33.6%
2026-09-19T06:09:30+00:00	79.0%	40.1%	35.2%	70.2%	33.6%
2026-09-19T06:54:39+00:00	79.0%	40.1%	35.2%	70.2%	33.6%
2026-09-19T07:40:11+00:00	81.0%	40.1%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T08:25:31+00:00	81.0%	40.1%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T09:10:38+00:00	81.0%	40.1%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T09:55:43+00:00	81.0%	40.1%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T10:40:48+00:00	81.0%	40.1%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T11:25:59+00:00	81.0%	34.8%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T12:11:06+00:00	81.0%	34.8%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T12:56:10+00:00	81.0%	34.8%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T13:41:17+00:00	60.9%	34.8%	35.2%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-19T14:27:52+00:00	61.0%	34.8%	35.2%	38.3%	33.7%
2026-09-19T15:13:08+00:00	61.0%	36.6%	35.2%	38.3%	33.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:16+00:00	61.0%	36.6%	35.2%	38.3%	33.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:21+00:00	61.0%	36.6%	35.2%	38.3%	19.4%
2026-09-19T17:28:26+00:00	61.0%	36.6%	35.2%	38.3%	19.4%
2026-09-19T18:13:31+00:00	61.0%	36.6%	35.2%	38.3%	19.4%
2026-09-19T18:58:40+00:00	61.0%	36.6%	35.2%	38.3%	19.4%
2026-09-19T19:43:45+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-19T20:28:50+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-19T21:13:54+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-19T21:58:59+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-19T22:44:04+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-19T23:29:10+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-20T00:14:16+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-20T00:59:25+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-20T01:44:33+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-20T02:29:39+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-20T03:14:58+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	19.4%
2026-09-20T04:45:11+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	36.9%
2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	36.9%
2026-09-20T06:15:21+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	36.9%
2026-09-20T07:00:29+00:00	60.1%	36.6%	35.2%	20.9%	36.9%
2026-09-20T07:46:00+00:00	57.2%	36.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00	57.2%	36.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T09:16:19+00:00	57.2%	36.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T10:01:24+00:00	57.2%	36.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T10:46:29+00:00	57.2%	36.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T11:31:45+00:00	57.2%	18.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T12:16:54+00:00	57.2%	18.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T13:01:59+00:00	57.2%	18.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T13:47:06+00:00	63.3%	18.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T14:33:37+00:00	62.5%	18.6%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T15:19:00+00:00	62.5%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T16:04:09+00:00	62.5%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	36.9%
2026-09-20T16:49:15+00:00	62.5%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T17:34:20+00:00	62.5%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T18:19:24+00:00	62.5%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T19:04:33+00:00	62.5%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T19:49:38+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T20:34:43+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T21:19:47+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T22:04:52+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-09-20T22:50:02+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	44.7%	54.1%
2026-09-20T23:35:07+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	44.7%	54.1%
2026-09-21T00:20:16+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	44.7%	54.1%
2026-09-21T01:05:26+00:00	65.9%	17.8%	35.2%	44.7%	54.1%
2026-09-21T01:50:32+00:00	55.4%	17.8%	35.2%	44.7%	54.1%
2026-09-21T02:35:36+00:00	55.4%	17.8%	35.2%	44.7%	54.1%
2026-09-21T15:25:39+00:00	64.0%	20.9%	35.2%	34.9%	46.6%
2026-09-21T16:10:49+00:00	64.0%	20.9%	35.2%	34.9%	46.6%
2026-09-21T16:55:54+00:00	64.0%	20.9%	35.2%	34.9%	29.5%
2026-09-21T17:40:59+00:00	64.0%	20.9%	35.2%	34.9%	29.5%
2026-09-21T18:26:04+00:00	64.0%	20.9%	35.2%	34.9%	29.5%
2026-09-21T19:11:14+00:00	64.0%	20.9%	35.2%	34.9%	29.5%
2026-09-21T19:56:26+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-21T20:41:33+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-21T21:26:39+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-21T22:11:45+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-21T22:56:50+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-21T23:41:55+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-22T00:27:00+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-22T01:12:09+00:00	61.2%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-22T01:57:15+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-22T02:42:38+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-22T03:27:47+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-22T04:12:51+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	29.5%
2026-09-22T04:58:05+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	25.8%
2026-09-22T05:43:30+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	25.8%
2026-09-22T06:28:43+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	25.8%
2026-09-22T07:13:51+00:00	63.1%	20.9%	35.2%	35.8%	25.8%
2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T11:00:06+00:00	65.3%	19.2%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T11:45:12+00:00	65.3%	19.2%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T12:30:17+00:00	65.3%	19.2%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T13:15:22+00:00	65.3%	19.2%	35.2%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T14:00:32+00:00	67.0%	19.3%	35.3%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T14:47:15+00:00	67.0%	19.3%	35.3%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T15:32:31+00:00	67.0%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T16:17:42+00:00	67.0%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	25.8%
2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00	67.0%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00	67.0%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00	67.0%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00	67.0%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T20:03:13+00:00	67.9%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T20:48:17+00:00	67.9%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T21:33:27+00:00	67.9%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T22:18:34+00:00	67.9%	19.7%	35.3%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T23:03:41+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-22T23:48:47+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-23T00:33:52+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-23T01:19:00+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-23T02:49:27+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-23T03:34:41+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-23T04:19:46+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	31.6%	29.6%
2026-09-23T05:04:59+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	26.1%	16.0%
2026-09-23T05:50:07+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	26.1%	16.0%
2026-09-23T06:35:12+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	26.1%	16.0%
2026-09-23T07:20:20+00:00	71.4%	19.7%	28.8%	26.1%	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	87.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	0.0818
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	29%	83.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.5069
IFS HRES	26%	83.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	0.5461
National Blend	25%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.5640
IFS Ensemble	20%	81.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.6448
ICON	16%	82.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.7056

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260923-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 19 · 03:09 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 86°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗