KBOI / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

85%

65%

59%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.2¢Risks 78.25u

EPSNO 21.8¢Risks 21.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.75u · EPS −21.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	19.3%	—	—	37.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	0.0%	89.8%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	73.1%	90.7%	0.0%	—	79.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	62.3%	84.4%	86.1%	—	78.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	74.9%	91.3%	16.4%	—	75.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	54.8%	41.3%	81.6%	—	75.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	33.8%	58.3%	61.5%	—	81.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	8.8%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	77.2%	85.4%	22.8%	—	77.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	74.3%	87.0%	—	—	83.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	74.1%	92.1%	95.2%	—	84.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	77.6%	90.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	91.0%	91.0%	79.0%	—	88.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	91.6%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	86.1%	94.5%	97.5%	—	87.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	88.9%	94.2%	—	—	88.9%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	88.1%	95.5%	97.1%	85.7%	89.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	89.3%	95.8%	0.0%	—	91.7%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	91.0%	95.2%	96.9%	84.0%	90.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	89.2%	96.7%	97.8%	—	89.8%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	90.0%	96.3%	97.0%	0.6%	94.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	88.5%	96.3%	97.9%	—	94.4%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	88.7%	96.8%	97.6%	89.9%	93.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	86.8%	96.8%	97.5%	—	93.8%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	89.8%	96.0%	98.1%	92.2%	96.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	89.5%	97.8%	98.3%	—	96.6%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	91.7%	98.0%	98.5%	93.4%	95.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	94.7%	98.1%	98.6%	—	97.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	91.0°F	1.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.0000
NWS forecast	98%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	98%	94.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0005
WeatherNext 2	90%	90.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	85%	90.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0222
ICON	65%	87.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.1239
IFS Ensemble	59%	87.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.1697

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260924-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗