KBOI / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

85%

65%

59%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.2¢Risks 78.25u

EPSNO 21.8¢Risks 21.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.75u · EPS −21.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T06:42:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T10:28:53+00:00	87.6%	35.6%	40.7%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T11:14:09+00:00	87.6%	33.3%	48.3%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T11:59:14+00:00	87.6%	33.3%	48.3%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T12:44:19+00:00	87.6%	33.3%	48.3%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T13:29:24+00:00	92.6%	33.3%	48.3%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T14:15:38+00:00	92.6%	33.3%	48.3%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T15:00:56+00:00	92.6%	33.7%	48.3%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T15:46:04+00:00	92.6%	33.7%	48.3%	65.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T16:31:16+00:00	92.6%	33.7%	48.3%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T17:16:22+00:00	92.6%	33.7%	47.5%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T18:01:26+00:00	92.6%	33.7%	47.5%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T18:46:35+00:00	92.6%	33.7%	47.5%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T19:31:41+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	47.5%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T20:16:46+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	47.5%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T21:01:51+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	47.5%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T21:46:56+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	47.5%	65.1%	78.1%
2026-09-17T22:32:01+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	47.5%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-17T23:17:06+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-18T00:02:11+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-18T00:47:19+00:00	95.8%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-18T01:32:25+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-18T02:17:30+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-18T03:02:57+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:05+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	78.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:10+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	76.4%
2026-09-18T05:18:16+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	76.4%
2026-09-18T06:03:20+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	76.4%
2026-09-18T06:48:28+00:00	93.3%	33.7%	44.2%	81.7%	76.4%
2026-09-18T07:33:57+00:00	96.7%	33.7%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T08:19:09+00:00	96.7%	33.7%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T09:04:17+00:00	96.7%	33.7%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T09:49:21+00:00	96.7%	33.7%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T10:34:52+00:00	96.7%	33.7%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T11:20:10+00:00	96.7%	37.3%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T12:05:16+00:00	96.7%	37.3%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T12:50:21+00:00	96.7%	37.3%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T13:35:28+00:00	94.9%	37.3%	44.2%	82.1%	76.4%
2026-09-18T14:21:57+00:00	94.9%	37.3%	44.2%	82.2%	76.4%
2026-09-18T15:07:20+00:00	94.9%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	76.4%
2026-09-18T15:52:27+00:00	94.9%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	76.4%
2026-09-18T16:37:33+00:00	94.9%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T17:22:38+00:00	94.9%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T18:07:43+00:00	94.9%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T18:52:52+00:00	94.9%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T19:37:57+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T20:23:02+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T21:08:06+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T21:53:12+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	82.2%	83.7%
2026-09-18T22:38:17+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-18T23:23:22+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-19T00:08:27+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-19T00:53:34+00:00	92.3%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-19T01:38:40+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-19T02:23:45+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-19T03:09:08+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-19T03:54:16+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	83.7%
2026-09-19T04:39:21+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	68.9%
2026-09-19T05:24:26+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	68.9%
2026-09-19T06:09:30+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	68.9%
2026-09-19T06:54:39+00:00	56.0%	37.8%	44.2%	84.8%	68.9%
2026-09-19T07:40:11+00:00	79.0%	37.8%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T08:25:31+00:00	79.0%	37.8%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T09:10:38+00:00	79.0%	37.8%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T09:55:43+00:00	79.0%	37.8%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T10:40:48+00:00	79.0%	37.8%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T11:25:59+00:00	79.0%	52.1%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T12:11:06+00:00	79.0%	52.1%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T12:56:10+00:00	79.0%	52.1%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T13:41:17+00:00	65.7%	52.1%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T14:27:52+00:00	65.7%	52.1%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T15:13:08+00:00	65.7%	52.8%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T15:58:16+00:00	65.7%	52.8%	44.2%	85.2%	68.9%
2026-09-19T16:43:21+00:00	65.7%	52.8%	44.2%	85.2%	52.0%
2026-09-19T17:28:26+00:00	65.7%	52.8%	44.2%	85.2%	52.0%
2026-09-19T18:13:31+00:00	65.7%	52.8%	44.2%	85.2%	52.0%
2026-09-19T18:58:40+00:00	65.7%	52.8%	44.2%	85.2%	52.0%
2026-09-19T19:43:45+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-19T20:28:50+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-19T21:13:54+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-19T21:58:59+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-19T22:44:04+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-19T23:29:10+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-20T00:14:16+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-20T00:59:25+00:00	84.9%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-20T01:44:33+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-20T02:29:39+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-20T03:14:58+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	52.0%
2026-09-20T04:45:11+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	84.4%
2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	84.4%
2026-09-20T06:15:21+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	84.4%
2026-09-20T07:00:29+00:00	93.8%	52.8%	44.2%	81.8%	84.4%
2026-09-20T07:46:00+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T09:16:19+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T10:01:24+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T10:46:29+00:00	96.2%	52.8%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T11:31:45+00:00	96.2%	50.0%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T12:16:54+00:00	96.2%	50.0%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T13:01:59+00:00	96.2%	50.0%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T13:47:06+00:00	96.7%	50.0%	44.2%	80.2%	84.4%
2026-09-20T14:33:37+00:00	96.8%	50.0%	44.2%	80.3%	84.4%
2026-09-20T15:19:00+00:00	96.8%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	84.4%
2026-09-20T16:04:09+00:00	96.8%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	84.4%
2026-09-20T16:49:15+00:00	96.8%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T17:34:20+00:00	96.8%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T18:19:24+00:00	96.8%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T19:04:33+00:00	96.8%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T19:49:38+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T20:34:43+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T21:19:47+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T22:04:52+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.3%	81.2%
2026-09-20T22:50:02+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-20T23:35:07+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-21T00:20:16+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-21T01:05:26+00:00	95.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-21T01:50:32+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-21T02:35:36+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-21T03:20:54+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-21T04:06:03+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	81.2%
2026-09-21T04:51:13+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T05:36:20+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T06:21:25+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T07:06:33+00:00	94.9%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T07:51:38+00:00	95.4%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T08:36:43+00:00	95.4%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T09:21:47+00:00	95.4%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T10:06:52+00:00	95.4%	48.4%	44.2%	80.8%	93.9%
2026-09-21T10:52:29+00:00	95.4%	48.4%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T11:37:57+00:00	95.4%	61.0%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T12:23:03+00:00	95.4%	61.0%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T13:08:08+00:00	95.4%	61.0%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T13:53:16+00:00	96.0%	61.0%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T14:40:21+00:00	96.0%	61.0%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T15:25:40+00:00	96.0%	59.8%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T16:10:49+00:00	96.0%	59.8%	44.2%	80.6%	93.9%
2026-09-21T16:55:54+00:00	96.0%	59.8%	44.2%	80.6%	88.7%
2026-09-21T17:40:59+00:00	96.0%	59.8%	44.2%	80.6%	88.7%
2026-09-21T18:26:04+00:00	96.0%	59.8%	44.2%	80.6%	88.7%
2026-09-21T19:11:14+00:00	96.0%	59.8%	44.2%	80.6%	88.7%
2026-09-21T19:56:26+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-21T20:41:33+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-21T21:26:39+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-21T22:11:45+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-21T22:56:50+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-21T23:41:55+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-22T00:27:00+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-22T01:12:09+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-22T01:57:15+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-22T02:42:38+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-22T03:27:47+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-22T04:12:51+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	88.7%
2026-09-22T04:58:05+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	85.9%
2026-09-22T05:43:30+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	85.9%
2026-09-22T06:28:43+00:00	95.2%	59.8%	44.2%	80.0%	85.9%
2026-09-22T11:00:06+00:00	96.5%	57.3%	44.2%	80.2%	85.9%
2026-09-22T11:45:12+00:00	96.5%	57.3%	44.2%	80.2%	85.9%
2026-09-22T12:30:17+00:00	96.5%	57.3%	44.2%	80.2%	85.9%
2026-09-22T13:15:22+00:00	96.5%	57.3%	44.2%	80.2%	85.9%
2026-09-22T14:00:32+00:00	97.2%	57.3%	43.4%	80.2%	86.0%
2026-09-22T14:47:15+00:00	97.2%	57.3%	43.4%	80.2%	86.0%
2026-09-22T15:32:31+00:00	97.2%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	86.0%
2026-09-22T16:17:42+00:00	97.2%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	86.0%
2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00	97.2%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00	97.2%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00	97.2%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00	97.2%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T20:03:13+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T20:48:17+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T21:33:27+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T22:18:34+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	43.4%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T23:03:41+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-22T23:48:47+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-23T00:33:52+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-23T01:19:00+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-23T02:49:27+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-23T03:34:41+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-23T04:19:46+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	80.2%	87.8%
2026-09-23T05:04:59+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	81.5%	77.7%
2026-09-23T05:50:07+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	81.5%	77.7%
2026-09-23T06:35:12+00:00	96.9%	57.5%	86.5%	81.5%	77.7%
2026-09-23T11:06:35+00:00	97.7%	57.8%	93.3%	88.0%	77.7%
2026-09-23T11:51:41+00:00	97.7%	57.8%	93.3%	88.0%	77.7%
2026-09-23T12:36:46+00:00	97.7%	57.8%	93.3%	88.0%	77.7%
2026-09-23T13:21:51+00:00	97.5%	57.8%	93.3%	88.0%	77.7%
2026-09-23T14:09:08+00:00	97.5%	57.8%	93.3%	88.0%	78.6%
2026-09-23T14:54:24+00:00	97.5%	58.7%	93.3%	88.0%	78.6%
2026-09-23T15:39:33+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	93.3%	88.0%	78.6%
2026-09-23T16:24:42+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	93.3%	88.0%	74.3%
2026-09-23T17:09:52+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	88.0%	74.3%
2026-09-23T17:54:57+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	88.0%	74.3%
2026-09-23T18:40:03+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	88.0%	74.3%
2026-09-23T19:25:15+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-23T20:10:21+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-23T20:55:27+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-23T21:40:32+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-23T22:25:39+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	89.2%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-23T23:10:45+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-23T23:55:50+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-24T00:40:57+00:00	97.5%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-24T01:26:08+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-24T02:11:14+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-24T02:56:46+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-24T03:41:56+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	74.3%
2026-09-24T04:27:02+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	88.0%	85.1%	64.8%
2026-09-24T05:12:08+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	89.7%	85.1%	64.8%
2026-09-24T05:57:20+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	89.7%	85.1%	64.8%
2026-09-24T06:42:27+00:00	97.7%	58.8%	89.7%	85.1%	64.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	91.0°F	1.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.0000
NWS forecast	98%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	98%	94.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0005
WeatherNext 2	90%	90.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	85%	90.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0222
ICON	65%	87.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.1239
IFS Ensemble	59%	87.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.1697

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260924-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗