KBOI / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

65%

60%

31%

30%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.90u

EPSNO 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.10u · EPS −40.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	8.8%	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	0.0%	77.7%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	53.5%	78.6%	0.0%	—	61.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	40.6%	67.7%	70.3%	—	59.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	53.8%	78.4%	6.0%	—	54.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	31.6%	20.6%	61.8%	—	53.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	14.8%	33.8%	36.9%	—	59.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	2.3%	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	53.5%	65.4%	8.0%	—	54.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	49.1%	67.4%	—	—	62.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	48.2%	76.3%	83.4%	—	62.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	51.9%	72.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	72.9%	52.9%	—	68.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	73.5%	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	62.2%	79.5%	88.2%	—	65.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	66.5%	78.0%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	63.9%	81.0%	85.7%	59.7%	66.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	65.4%	81.0%	0.0%	—	70.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	68.0%	78.5%	84.0%	54.6%	66.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	63.0%	82.5%	86.8%	—	64.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	63.4%	80.1%	82.6%	0.0%	73.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	59.0%	79.1%	85.7%	—	73.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	58.0%	80.0%	83.5%	60.6%	70.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	52.8%	78.9%	81.8%	—	68.8%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	57.2%	74.4%	83.7%	62.8%	75.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	54.5%	80.8%	83.8%	—	75.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	57.9%	80.8%	83.9%	62.4%	71.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	64.5%	79.7%	83.0%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	94.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0110
National Blend	84%	91.0°F	1.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.0266
NWS forecast	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	0.0615
WeatherNext 2	65%	90.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.1232
IFS HRES	60%	90.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.1640
ICON	31%	87.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.4761
IFS Ensemble	30%	87.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.4858

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260924-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Boise · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗