KBOI / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

54%

49%

22%

22%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.10u · ICON −47.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	6.5%	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.0%	72.4%	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	46.5%	73.1%	0.0%	—	54.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	33.7%	60.8%	63.6%	—	52.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	46.2%	72.4%	4.1%	—	46.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	24.8%	15.4%	54.0%	—	45.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	10.4%	26.5%	29.3%	—	51.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	1.4%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	44.8%	57.0%	5.2%	—	45.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	40.2%	58.9%	—	—	53.6%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	39.1%	68.6%	77.0%	—	53.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	42.5%	63.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	64.3%	64.3%	43.2%	—	59.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.7%	70.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	52.1%	71.5%	82.4%	—	55.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	56.3%	69.3%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	53.3%	72.7%	78.7%	48.9%	56.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	54.5%	72.4%	0.0%	—	60.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	57.0%	69.0%	75.8%	43.0%	55.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	51.2%	73.7%	79.2%	—	52.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	51.2%	70.2%	73.4%	0.0%	62.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	46.1%	68.7%	77.2%	—	61.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	44.6%	69.3%	73.9%	47.3%	58.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	39.0%	67.5%	71.2%	—	55.6%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	42.8%	61.4%	73.2%	48.5%	62.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	39.5%	68.9%	72.8%	—	61.9%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	42.1%	68.3%	72.4%	46.8%	56.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	66.1%	70.5%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	94.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0246
National Blend	63%	91.0°F	1.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.1384
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	54%	90.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.2162
IFS HRES	49%	90.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.2611
IFS Ensemble	22%	87.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.6037
ICON	22%	87.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.6162

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260924-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 91°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗