KBOI / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

54%

49%

22%

22%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.10u · ICON −47.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T06:42:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T15:25:39+00:00	80.0%	15.9%	16.5%	49.1%	69.6%
2026-09-21T16:10:49+00:00	80.0%	15.9%	16.5%	49.1%	69.6%
2026-09-21T16:55:54+00:00	80.0%	15.9%	16.5%	49.1%	57.1%
2026-09-21T17:40:59+00:00	80.0%	15.9%	16.5%	49.1%	57.1%
2026-09-21T18:26:04+00:00	80.0%	15.9%	16.5%	49.1%	57.1%
2026-09-21T19:11:14+00:00	80.0%	15.9%	16.5%	49.1%	57.1%
2026-09-21T19:56:26+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T20:41:33+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T21:26:39+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T22:11:45+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T22:56:50+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T23:41:55+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-22T00:27:00+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-22T01:12:09+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-22T01:57:15+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-22T02:42:38+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-22T03:27:47+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-22T04:12:51+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	57.1%
2026-09-22T04:58:05+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T05:43:30+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T06:28:43+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T07:13:51+00:00	77.4%	15.9%	16.5%	48.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00	80.4%	15.9%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00	80.4%	15.9%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00	80.4%	15.9%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00	80.4%	15.9%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T11:00:06+00:00	80.4%	19.3%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T11:45:12+00:00	80.4%	19.3%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T12:30:17+00:00	80.4%	19.3%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T13:15:22+00:00	80.4%	19.3%	16.5%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T14:00:32+00:00	83.0%	19.3%	16.0%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T14:47:15+00:00	83.0%	19.3%	16.0%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T15:32:31+00:00	83.0%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T16:17:42+00:00	83.0%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	47.7%
2026-09-22T17:02:48+00:00	83.0%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:53+00:00	83.0%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:59+00:00	83.0%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:07+00:00	83.0%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:13+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:17+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:27+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:34+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	16.0%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T23:03:41+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-22T23:48:47+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-23T00:33:52+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-23T01:19:00+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-23T02:04:08+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-23T02:49:27+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-23T03:34:41+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-23T04:19:46+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	45.2%	51.1%
2026-09-23T05:04:59+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	47.1%	35.7%
2026-09-23T05:50:07+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	47.1%	35.7%
2026-09-23T06:35:12+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	47.1%	35.7%
2026-09-23T07:20:20+00:00	81.8%	18.6%	48.9%	47.1%	35.7%
2026-09-23T08:05:59+00:00	84.3%	18.6%	48.9%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T08:51:14+00:00	84.3%	18.6%	48.9%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T09:36:18+00:00	84.3%	18.6%	48.9%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T10:21:22+00:00	84.3%	18.6%	48.9%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T11:06:35+00:00	84.3%	21.6%	62.7%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T11:51:41+00:00	84.3%	21.6%	62.7%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T12:36:46+00:00	84.3%	21.6%	62.7%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T13:21:51+00:00	83.7%	21.6%	62.7%	54.2%	35.7%
2026-09-23T14:09:08+00:00	83.7%	21.7%	62.7%	54.2%	36.7%
2026-09-23T14:54:24+00:00	83.7%	22.4%	62.7%	54.2%	36.7%
2026-09-23T15:39:33+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	62.7%	54.2%	36.7%
2026-09-23T16:24:42+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	62.7%	54.2%	31.5%
2026-09-23T17:09:52+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	54.2%	31.5%
2026-09-23T17:54:57+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	54.2%	31.5%
2026-09-23T18:40:02+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	54.2%	31.5%
2026-09-23T19:25:15+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-23T20:10:21+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-23T20:55:27+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-23T21:40:32+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-23T22:25:39+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	52.3%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-23T23:10:45+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-23T23:55:50+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-24T00:40:57+00:00	83.7%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-24T01:26:08+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-24T02:11:14+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-24T02:56:46+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-24T03:41:56+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	31.5%
2026-09-24T04:27:02+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	50.0%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-09-24T05:12:08+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	53.5%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-09-24T05:57:20+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	53.5%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-09-24T06:42:27+00:00	84.3%	22.3%	53.5%	48.9%	21.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	94.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0246
National Blend	63%	91.0°F	1.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.1384
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	54%	90.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.2162
IFS HRES	49%	90.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.2611
IFS Ensemble	22%	87.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.6037
ICON	22%	87.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.6162

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260924-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 91°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗