KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 07:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

51%

42%

32%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.6¢Risks 39.65u

ICONNO 60.3¢Risks 60.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.35u · ICON −60.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	43.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	3.0%	48.0%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	15.8%	3.1%	0.1%	—	38.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	71.5%	5.3%	71.5%	—	47.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	81.1%	59.8%	54.6%	—	30.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	73.9%	33.7%	14.0%	—	21.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	3.4%	38.5%	30.0%	—	28.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	0.0%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	6.2%	6.8%	62.1%	—	25.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	19.6%	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	35.6%	18.4%	60.0%	—	40.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	22.4%	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	54.9%	32.1%	67.0%	—	63.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	39.1%	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	37.8%	35.9%	50.0%	—	64.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	39.5%	46.8%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	36.1%	56.5%	61.8%	—	58.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	23.1%	51.1%	0.0%	—	53.4%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	17.5%	46.5%	60.4%	—	51.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	7.4%	46.4%	53.6%	—	51.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	20.8%	46.3%	37.7%	25.6%	47.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	23.8%	37.3%	52.6%	—	42.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	21.0%	40.7%	58.0%	0.0%	38.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	15.6%	43.1%	50.0%	—	30.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	11.5%	42.8%	41.4%	15.4%	37.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	14.4%	51.5%	36.6%	—	33.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	12.5%	45.3%	39.1%	11.7%	30.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	10.7%	38.6%	32.4%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.5461
National Blend	61%	75.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.3684
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	51%	74.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.2621
IFS Ensemble	42%	73.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.1798
IFS HRES	32%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1056
ICON	5%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.0029

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗