KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 07:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

51%

42%

32%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.6¢Risks 39.65u

ICONNO 60.3¢Risks 60.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.35u · ICON −60.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T02:26:31+00:00	78.8%	53.4%	65.8%	48.2%	42.9%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	78.8%	53.4%	65.8%	48.2%	42.9%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	78.8%	53.4%	65.8%	48.2%	42.9%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	78.8%	53.4%	65.8%	48.2%	31.5%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	78.8%	53.4%	64.8%	48.2%	31.5%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	78.8%	53.4%	64.8%	48.2%	31.5%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	78.8%	53.4%	64.8%	48.2%	31.5%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	77.8%	53.4%	64.8%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	77.8%	53.4%	64.8%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	77.8%	53.4%	64.8%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	77.8%	53.4%	64.8%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	77.8%	53.4%	64.8%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	77.8%	50.9%	55.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	77.8%	50.9%	55.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	77.8%	50.9%	55.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	79.2%	50.9%	55.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-27T03:20:02+00:00	80.5%	52.6%	52.3%	49.0%	15.4%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	80.5%	52.6%	52.3%	49.0%	15.4%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	80.5%	52.6%	52.3%	49.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	80.5%	52.6%	54.5%	49.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	80.5%	52.6%	54.5%	49.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	80.5%	52.6%	54.5%	49.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	77.7%	52.6%	54.5%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	77.7%	52.6%	54.5%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	77.7%	52.6%	54.5%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	77.7%	52.6%	54.5%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	77.7%	52.6%	54.5%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	77.7%	43.3%	58.1%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	77.7%	43.3%	58.1%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	77.7%	43.3%	58.1%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	78.5%	43.3%	58.1%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	78.5%	43.3%	58.1%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	58.1%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	58.1%	43.6%	13.5%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	57.0%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	78.5%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	53.5%	32.5%	14.7%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	51.2%	32.5%	5.4%
2026-09-28T05:43:49+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	51.2%	32.5%	5.4%
2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	51.2%	32.5%	5.4%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	73.9%	42.4%	51.2%	32.5%	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.5461
National Blend	61%	75.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.3684
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	51%	74.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.2621
IFS Ensemble	42%	73.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.1798
IFS HRES	32%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1056
ICON	5%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.0029

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗