KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

57%

50%

41%

19%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.25u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.75u · ICON −47.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	42.8%	—	—	78.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	9.9%	—	—	70.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	0.4%	19.8%	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	89.1%	51.4%	0.0%	—	60.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	90.4%	44.2%	20.4%	—	49.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	12.5%	69.1%	72.4%	—	45.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	21.2%	27.4%	76.4%	—	43.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	56.6%	72.1%	55.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	1.7%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	50.9%	49.1%	73.1%	—	57.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	48.2%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	56.4%	67.0%	53.7%	—	68.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	44.3%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	42.3%	60.6%	65.2%	—	64.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	44.0%	54.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	35.9%	54.1%	54.1%	—	62.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	18.3%	56.3%	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	35.1%	60.8%	57.6%	—	62.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	33.6%	56.7%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	28.9%	59.2%	58.1%	—	54.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	26.3%	59.5%	60.7%	—	53.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	25.6%	57.4%	61.1%	13.0%	55.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	31.4%	60.2%	65.1%	—	60.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	27.3%	66.9%	60.6%	12.7%	59.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	26.5%	67.5%	63.7%	—	59.7%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	37.2%	61.4%	64.2%	22.2%	66.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	35.2%	71.5%	59.0%	—	59.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	25.0%	62.4%	50.0%	26.3%	51.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	67.6%	28.1%	51.6%	43.4%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	78.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.0207
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	57%	75.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.1849
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	50%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.2500
IFS Ensemble	41%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.3457
ICON	19%	71.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.6577

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗