KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

57%

50%

41%

19%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.25u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.75u · ICON −47.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T03:36:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T02:26:31+00:00	83.4%	60.2%	63.9%	54.7%	66.3%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	83.4%	60.2%	63.9%	54.7%	66.3%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	83.4%	60.2%	63.9%	54.7%	66.3%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	83.4%	60.2%	63.9%	54.7%	46.9%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	83.4%	60.2%	61.0%	54.7%	46.9%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	83.4%	60.2%	61.0%	54.7%	46.9%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	83.4%	60.2%	61.0%	54.7%	46.9%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	86.9%	60.2%	61.0%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	86.9%	60.2%	61.0%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	86.9%	60.2%	61.0%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	86.9%	60.2%	61.0%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	86.9%	60.2%	61.0%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	86.9%	57.7%	61.7%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	86.9%	57.7%	61.7%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	86.9%	57.7%	61.7%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	86.9%	57.7%	61.7%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00	86.9%	57.7%	61.7%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	61.7%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	61.7%	57.1%	46.9%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	61.7%	57.1%	40.9%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	61.7%	57.1%	40.9%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	61.7%	57.1%	40.9%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00	86.9%	60.6%	61.7%	57.1%	40.9%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00	88.7%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00	88.7%	60.6%	61.7%	53.5%	40.9%
2026-09-28T14:48:53+00:00	87.2%	46.0%	67.0%	47.9%	16.8%
2026-09-28T15:34:05+00:00	87.2%	41.2%	67.0%	47.9%	16.8%
2026-09-28T16:19:11+00:00	87.2%	41.2%	67.0%	47.9%	16.8%
2026-09-28T17:04:18+00:00	87.2%	41.2%	60.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T17:49:25+00:00	87.2%	41.2%	60.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T18:34:30+00:00	87.2%	41.2%	60.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T19:19:36+00:00	87.2%	41.2%	60.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T20:04:47+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	60.4%	50.0%	19.0%
2026-09-28T20:49:52+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	60.4%	50.0%	19.0%
2026-09-28T21:34:56+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	60.4%	50.0%	19.0%
2026-09-28T22:20:00+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	60.4%	50.0%	19.0%
2026-09-28T23:05:06+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	57.0%	50.0%	18.9%
2026-09-28T23:50:13+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	57.0%	50.0%	18.9%
2026-09-29T00:35:20+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	57.0%	50.0%	18.9%
2026-09-29T01:20:30+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	57.0%	50.0%	18.9%
2026-09-29T02:05:56+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	57.0%	50.0%	18.9%
2026-09-29T02:51:03+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	57.0%	50.0%	18.9%
2026-09-29T03:36:08+00:00	85.6%	41.2%	57.0%	50.0%	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	78.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.0207
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	57%	75.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.1849
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	50%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.2500
IFS Ensemble	41%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.3457
ICON	19%	71.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.6577

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗