KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

41%

29%

21%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u

ICONNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.65u · ICON −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	55.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	70.9%	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	46.1%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	9.0%	44.6%	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	26.9%	55.6%	0.0%	—	28.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	53.6%	15.6%	56.6%	—	33.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	7.3%	1.1%	56.8%	—	27.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	57.1%	7.8%	58.7%	—	31.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	14.8%	5.8%	30.8%	—	27.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	0.3%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	11.3%	31.4%	48.2%	—	37.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	5.2%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	14.4%	55.5%	41.8%	—	29.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	8.4%	59.4%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	6.8%	14.2%	10.2%	—	24.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	19.7%	11.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	6.1%	9.4%	11.8%	—	21.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	5.2%	12.1%	—	—	19.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	4.0%	16.9%	42.4%	0.0%	21.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	4.0%	10.7%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	2.9%	15.3%	24.2%	5.1%	22.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	1.7%	17.5%	31.4%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	2.8%	19.1%	28.7%	0.0%	26.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	3.0%	23.8%	24.8%	—	30.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	4.3%	30.7%	29.5%	8.4%	25.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	8.1%	36.3%	35.0%	—	25.3%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	12.2%	44.2%	37.2%	13.8%	35.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	16.2%	54.5%	42.5%	—	33.8%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	9.6%	48.4%	33.1%	14.2%	27.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	12.3%	29.5%	28.1%	—	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	81.4°F	4.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.4462
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 14:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	41%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1714
IFS HRES	29%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0835
IFS Ensemble	21%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0449
National Blend	21%	76.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.0428
ICON	8%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0062

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 80°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗