KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

41%

29%

21%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u

ICONNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.65u · ICON −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	69.3%	22.7%	39.3%	27.4%	7.6%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	69.3%	21.2%	39.3%	27.4%	7.6%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	69.3%	21.2%	39.3%	27.4%	7.6%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	69.3%	21.2%	36.2%	27.4%	7.9%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	69.3%	21.2%	36.2%	27.4%	7.9%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	69.3%	21.2%	36.2%	27.4%	7.9%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	69.3%	21.2%	36.2%	27.4%	7.9%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	36.2%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	36.2%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	36.2%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	36.2%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	41.4%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	41.4%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	41.4%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	71.6%	21.2%	41.4%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	66.8%	21.2%	41.4%	28.9%	7.9%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	66.8%	21.2%	41.4%	28.9%	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	81.4°F	4.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.4462
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 14:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	41%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1714
IFS HRES	29%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0835
IFS Ensemble	21%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0449
National Blend	21%	76.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.0428
ICON	8%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0062

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 80°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗