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KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 02:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
24%
WN2
6%
HRES
5%
EPS
2%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 12.2¢Risks 12.15u
VS
ICONNO 87.9¢Risks 87.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +87.85u · ICON −87.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.9% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.7% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.6% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.4% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.3% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.7% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.3% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.3% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.9% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.6% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.4% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.6% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.6% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.8% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.1% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.7% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.6% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.7% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.1% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.4% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.2% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:0009-15 12:0009-23 06:0009-30 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:000.4%————7.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:001.5%————16.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:0024.4%————16.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.5%————14.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:0073.9%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:002.2%————12.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:0036.9%————27.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:002.6%—————
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:0043.6%————30.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:0071.7%—————
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:0037.4%————22.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:0028.9%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:0066.0%————28.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:0057.2%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:0038.2%—0.0%——28.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:0026.7%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:005.1%————36.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:0023.2%—19.3%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:0025.7%—0.1%——19.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:0021.5%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:0063.5%—40.7%——16.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:0071.8%—31.0%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.1%—18.0%——10.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0037.6%—37.0%———
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:0010.2%1.4%16.3%——8.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:006.4%—27.3%———
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:007.9%6.7%23.0%0.0%—7.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:004.1%—19.9%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:008.2%20.4%2.7%22.6%—9.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:003.8%—0.8%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:0011.4%0.8%0.1%21.6%—6.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:005.7%—0.1%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:006.4%20.6%0.8%21.8%—6.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:003.3%—5.1%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:0030.0%1.8%0.4%6.1%—4.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:0022.6%0.0%4.3%———
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:0010.1%1.1%5.7%12.7%—7.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:008.8%0.3%19.6%———
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:002.9%1.3%15.4%8.6%—4.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:004.2%0.5%17.1%——4.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:003.5%0.3%1.1%0.6%—2.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:004.9%1.8%0.7%——0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:005.2%0.2%0.5%0.7%—1.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:003.5%0.2%0.6%——1.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:003.5%0.1%1.0%5.9%0.0%1.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:001.6%0.1%0.4%0.0%—1.4%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:002.1%0.0%0.7%1.5%0.1%1.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:001.6%0.0%0.7%2.3%——
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.0%0.7%1.7%0.0%1.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:001.8%0.0%1.0%1.1%—1.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:001.6%0.0%1.4%1.3%0.1%0.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:001.4%0.1%1.8%1.7%—0.8%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:001.5%0.1%2.5%1.6%0.2%1.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:001.3%0.2%3.7%1.8%—1.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:001.0%0.1%2.2%0.8%0.1%0.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.1%0.4%0.4%—0.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single24%81.4°F4.4°F2026-09-27 18:000.0571
NWS forecast12%80.0°F3.9°F2026-09-27 14:000.0156
WeatherNext 26%78.7°F3.7°F2026-09-27 12:000.0034
IFS HRES5%77.0°F4.5°F2026-09-27 12:000.0023
IFS Ensemble2%76.3°F4.0°F2026-09-27 00:000.0004
National Blend1%76.8°F3.3°F2026-09-27 06:000.0001
ICON<1%74.0°F3.9°F2026-09-27 12:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗