KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.2¢Risks 12.15u

ICONNO 87.9¢Risks 87.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +87.85u · ICON −87.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T08:05:59+00:00	25.9%	17.8%	3.9%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T08:51:14+00:00	25.9%	17.8%	3.9%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T09:36:18+00:00	25.9%	17.8%	3.9%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T10:21:22+00:00	25.9%	17.8%	3.9%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T11:06:35+00:00	25.9%	9.6%	3.7%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T11:51:41+00:00	25.9%	9.6%	3.7%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T12:36:46+00:00	25.9%	9.6%	3.7%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T13:21:51+00:00	19.0%	9.6%	3.7%	0.8%	18.4%
2026-09-23T14:09:09+00:00	18.9%	9.6%	3.7%	0.9%	18.2%
2026-09-23T14:54:24+00:00	18.9%	9.8%	3.7%	0.9%	18.2%
2026-09-23T15:39:33+00:00	18.9%	9.8%	3.7%	0.9%	18.2%
2026-09-23T16:24:42+00:00	18.9%	9.8%	3.7%	0.9%	32.3%
2026-09-23T17:09:52+00:00	18.9%	9.8%	4.5%	0.9%	32.3%
2026-09-23T17:54:57+00:00	18.9%	9.8%	4.5%	0.9%	32.3%
2026-09-23T18:40:03+00:00	18.9%	9.8%	4.5%	0.9%	32.3%
2026-09-23T19:25:15+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-23T20:10:21+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-23T20:55:27+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-23T21:40:32+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-23T22:25:39+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-23T23:10:45+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-23T23:55:50+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T00:40:57+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T01:26:08+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T02:11:14+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T02:56:47+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T03:41:56+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	32.3%
2026-09-24T04:27:02+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	4.5%	12.8%	42.0%
2026-09-24T05:12:08+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	5.3%	12.8%	42.0%
2026-09-24T05:57:20+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	5.3%	12.8%	42.0%
2026-09-24T06:42:28+00:00	14.8%	9.8%	5.3%	12.8%	42.0%
2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00	24.4%	9.8%	5.3%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00	24.4%	9.8%	5.3%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00	24.4%	9.8%	5.3%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00	24.4%	9.8%	5.3%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00	24.4%	9.8%	5.3%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00	24.4%	2.5%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00	24.4%	2.5%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00	24.4%	2.5%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00	15.1%	2.5%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00	14.7%	2.7%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:00	14.7%	2.7%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00	14.7%	2.5%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00	14.7%	2.5%	3.9%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00	14.7%	2.5%	4.1%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00	14.7%	2.5%	4.1%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00	14.7%	2.5%	4.1%	13.0%	42.0%
2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	4.1%	13.0%	8.5%
2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	4.1%	13.0%	8.5%
2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	4.1%	13.0%	8.5%
2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	4.1%	13.0%	8.5%
2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	4.1%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00	31.3%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-25T03:04:36+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-25T03:49:47+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	8.5%
2026-09-25T04:34:53+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	6.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T05:20:00+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T06:05:07+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T06:50:11+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T07:35:21+00:00	22.1%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T08:20:26+00:00	22.1%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T09:05:32+00:00	22.1%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T09:50:36+00:00	22.1%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T10:35:42+00:00	22.1%	2.5%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T11:20:49+00:00	22.1%	9.8%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T12:05:54+00:00	22.1%	9.8%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T12:51:00+00:00	22.1%	9.8%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T13:36:07+00:00	14.7%	9.8%	5.2%	37.0%	37.3%
2026-09-25T14:23:08+00:00	14.6%	9.8%	4.9%	37.0%	37.2%
2026-09-25T15:08:14+00:00	14.6%	10.3%	4.9%	37.0%	37.2%
2026-09-25T15:53:19+00:00	14.6%	10.3%	4.9%	37.0%	37.2%
2026-09-25T16:38:25+00:00	14.6%	10.3%	4.9%	37.0%	9.1%
2026-09-25T17:23:33+00:00	14.6%	10.3%	2.7%	37.0%	9.1%
2026-09-25T18:09:00+00:00	14.6%	10.3%	2.7%	37.0%	9.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00	14.6%	10.3%	2.7%	37.0%	9.1%
2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	2.7%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	2.7%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	2.7%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	2.7%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	2.7%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00	58.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-26T02:26:32+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	9.1%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	2.6%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	2.6%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	2.6%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	50.8%	10.3%	7.0%	18.2%	2.6%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	32.5%	10.3%	7.0%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	32.5%	10.3%	7.0%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	32.5%	10.3%	7.0%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	32.5%	10.3%	7.0%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	32.5%	10.3%	7.0%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	32.5%	8.0%	6.4%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	32.5%	8.0%	6.4%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	32.5%	8.0%	6.4%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	31.0%	8.0%	6.4%	12.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00	31.0%	8.2%	6.4%	12.0%	2.6%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00	31.0%	8.7%	6.4%	12.0%	2.6%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00	31.0%	8.7%	6.4%	12.0%	2.6%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00	31.0%	8.7%	6.4%	12.0%	4.0%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00	31.0%	8.7%	6.4%	12.0%	4.0%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00	31.0%	8.7%	6.4%	12.0%	4.0%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00	31.0%	8.7%	6.4%	12.0%	4.0%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	6.4%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	6.4%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	6.4%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	6.4%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	6.4%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-27T03:20:03+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	4.0%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.6%	9.5%	0.3%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.8%	9.5%	0.3%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.8%	9.5%	0.3%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	22.5%	8.7%	3.8%	9.5%	0.3%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	20.5%	8.7%	3.8%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	20.5%	8.7%	3.8%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	20.5%	8.7%	3.8%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	20.5%	8.7%	3.8%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	20.5%	8.7%	3.8%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	26.1%	2.3%	5.2%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	26.1%	2.0%	5.2%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	26.1%	2.0%	5.2%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	26.1%	2.0%	4.4%	4.4%	0.4%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	26.1%	2.0%	4.4%	4.4%	0.4%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	26.1%	2.0%	4.4%	4.4%	0.4%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	26.1%	2.0%	4.4%	4.4%	0.4%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	4.4%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	4.4%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	4.4%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	4.4%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	5.8%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	5.8%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	5.8%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	28.4%	2.0%	5.8%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	23.9%	2.0%	5.8%	4.8%	0.4%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	23.9%	2.0%	5.8%	4.8%	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	24%	81.4°F	4.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.0571
NWS forecast	12%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 14:00	0.0156
WeatherNext 2	6%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0034
IFS HRES	5%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0023
IFS Ensemble	2%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0004
National Blend	1%	76.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.0001
ICON	<1%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗