KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

72%

66%

44%

42%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

EPSNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.00u · EPS −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.0%	1.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	31.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	5.5%	49.3%	73.4%	—	44.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	50.8%	2.8%	72.4%	—	50.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	60.3%	81.1%	61.0%	—	68.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	26.5%	79.9%	61.5%	—	78.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	2.4%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	58.7%	53.5%	69.3%	—	67.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	36.8%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	48.2%	37.3%	32.2%	—	70.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	59.4%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	64.3%	45.1%	50.0%	—	65.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	32.6%	42.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	32.1%	53.1%	28.5%	23.5%	68.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	42.6%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	55.5%	53.3%	32.1%	0.0%	83.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	38.9%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	48.8%	63.7%	27.0%	13.4%	81.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	30.4%	61.9%	19.9%	—	72.7%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	45.0%	65.8%	30.9%	13.7%	69.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	59.0%	66.3%	42.3%	—	77.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	48.7%	65.7%	34.3%	13.4%	70.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	37.7%	63.7%	43.1%	—	65.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	55.8%	70.7%	28.0%	5.9%	65.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	50.0%	71.5%	41.0%	—	60.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	54.7%	69.7%	27.6%	17.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	58.2%	40.2%	54.9%	22.8%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	85.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.8100
National Blend	76%	83.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.5852
WeatherNext 2	72%	83.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.5170
IFS HRES	66%	83.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.4303
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	0.3481
ICON	44%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1971
IFS Ensemble	42%	80.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1764

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 28 · 03:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗