KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

72%

66%

44%

42%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

EPSNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.00u · EPS −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	80.8%	55.3%	51.9%	90.7%	44.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	80.8%	55.3%	51.9%	90.7%	44.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	80.8%	55.3%	25.2%	90.7%	69.4%
2026-09-28T05:43:49+00:00	80.8%	55.3%	25.2%	90.7%	69.4%
2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00	80.8%	55.3%	25.2%	90.7%	69.4%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	80.8%	55.3%	25.2%	90.7%	69.4%
2026-09-28T08:00:03+00:00	84.4%	55.3%	25.2%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T08:45:30+00:00	84.4%	55.3%	25.2%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T09:30:35+00:00	84.4%	55.3%	25.2%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T10:15:41+00:00	84.4%	55.3%	25.2%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T11:00:57+00:00	84.4%	55.5%	40.0%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T11:46:09+00:00	84.4%	55.5%	40.0%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T12:31:15+00:00	84.4%	55.5%	40.0%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T13:16:23+00:00	84.4%	55.5%	40.0%	79.8%	69.4%
2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00	78.8%	55.5%	40.0%	79.9%	69.4%
2026-09-28T14:48:53+00:00	78.8%	55.5%	40.0%	79.9%	69.4%
2026-09-28T15:34:05+00:00	78.8%	53.1%	40.0%	79.9%	69.4%
2026-09-28T16:19:11+00:00	78.8%	53.1%	40.0%	79.9%	69.4%
2026-09-28T17:04:18+00:00	78.8%	53.1%	36.2%	80.2%	60.0%
2026-09-28T17:49:25+00:00	78.8%	53.1%	36.2%	80.2%	60.0%
2026-09-28T18:34:30+00:00	78.8%	53.1%	36.2%	80.2%	60.0%
2026-09-28T19:19:36+00:00	78.8%	53.1%	36.2%	80.2%	60.0%
2026-09-28T20:04:47+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	36.2%	67.9%	60.0%
2026-09-28T20:49:52+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	36.2%	67.9%	60.0%
2026-09-28T21:34:56+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	36.2%	67.9%	60.0%
2026-09-28T22:20:00+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	36.2%	67.9%	60.0%
2026-09-28T23:05:06+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	60.0%
2026-09-28T23:50:13+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	60.0%
2026-09-29T00:35:20+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	60.0%
2026-09-29T01:20:30+00:00	79.4%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	60.0%
2026-09-29T02:05:56+00:00	78.2%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	60.0%
2026-09-29T02:51:03+00:00	78.2%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	60.0%
2026-09-29T03:36:08+00:00	78.2%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	60.0%
2026-09-29T04:21:42+00:00	78.2%	53.1%	40.0%	67.6%	69.6%
2026-09-29T05:06:58+00:00	78.2%	53.1%	38.1%	67.6%	69.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:06+00:00	78.2%	53.1%	38.1%	67.6%	69.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00	78.2%	53.1%	38.1%	67.6%	69.6%
2026-09-29T07:22:50+00:00	78.9%	53.1%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T08:08:26+00:00	78.9%	53.1%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T08:53:34+00:00	78.9%	53.1%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T09:38:39+00:00	78.9%	53.1%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T10:23:44+00:00	78.9%	53.1%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T11:09:01+00:00	78.9%	43.3%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:08+00:00	78.9%	43.3%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:13+00:00	78.9%	43.3%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:18+00:00	75.4%	43.3%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:43+00:00	75.5%	43.4%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T14:57:02+00:00	75.5%	41.2%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:27+00:00	75.5%	41.1%	38.1%	66.4%	69.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:45+00:00	75.5%	41.1%	38.1%	66.4%	36.9%
2026-09-29T17:12:54+00:00	75.5%	41.1%	44.6%	66.4%	36.9%
2026-09-29T17:58:01+00:00	75.5%	41.1%	44.6%	66.4%	36.9%
2026-09-29T18:43:08+00:00	75.5%	41.1%	44.6%	66.4%	36.9%
2026-09-29T19:28:20+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	44.6%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:41+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	44.6%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:50+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	44.6%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:57+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	44.6%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:04+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	44.6%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:23+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:29+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:36+00:00	79.6%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:55+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-30T02:15:02+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:16+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:25+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	36.9%
2026-09-30T04:31:03+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	45.7%	65.5%	51.1%
2026-09-30T05:16:24+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	48.9%	65.5%	51.1%
2026-09-30T06:01:30+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	48.9%	65.5%	51.1%
2026-09-30T06:46:39+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	48.9%	65.5%	51.1%
2026-09-30T07:32:33+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	48.9%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T08:18:26+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	48.9%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T09:03:37+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	48.9%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T09:48:43+00:00	84.4%	41.1%	48.9%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T10:34:53+00:00	88.1%	41.1%	48.9%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T11:20:08+00:00	88.1%	53.6%	54.5%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T12:05:15+00:00	88.1%	53.6%	54.5%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T12:50:21+00:00	88.1%	53.6%	54.5%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T13:35:33+00:00	83.8%	53.6%	54.5%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T14:23:11+00:00	83.8%	53.6%	54.5%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-30T15:08:17+00:00	83.8%	53.6%	54.5%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-10-02T03:21:13+00:00	84.6%	42.0%	28.1%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T04:06:27+00:00	84.6%	42.0%	28.1%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T04:51:33+00:00	84.6%	42.0%	28.1%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T05:36:56+00:00	84.6%	42.0%	71.9%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T06:22:04+00:00	84.6%	42.0%	71.9%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T07:07:17+00:00	84.6%	42.0%	71.9%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T07:52:24+00:00	90.0%	42.0%	71.9%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T08:37:33+00:00	90.0%	42.0%	71.9%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T09:22:39+00:00	90.0%	42.0%	71.9%	65.6%	44.4%
2026-10-02T10:07:45+00:00	90.0%	42.0%	71.9%	65.6%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	85.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.8100
National Blend	76%	83.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.5852
WeatherNext 2	72%	83.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.5170
IFS HRES	66%	83.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.4303
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	0.3481
ICON	44%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1971
IFS Ensemble	42%	80.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1764

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 28 · 03:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗