KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

45%

26%

24%

12%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

WN2NO 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.90u · WN2 −58.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	19.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	2.5%	35.0%	60.1%	—	31.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	35.8%	1.1%	58.3%	—	35.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	44.4%	68.4%	45.2%	—	53.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	14.8%	66.2%	45.0%	—	63.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	0.8%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	41.3%	36.3%	52.6%	—	50.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	21.5%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	30.6%	21.6%	17.8%	—	52.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	40.6%	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	45.1%	27.1%	31.3%	—	46.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	17.0%	24.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	16.3%	33.0%	13.9%	10.8%	49.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	23.6%	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	34.1%	32.1%	15.5%	0.0%	65.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	19.8%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	27.0%	40.8%	11.6%	4.5%	62.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	13.2%	38.1%	7.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	22.7%	41.3%	13.0%	4.3%	45.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	33.7%	41.0%	20.0%	—	53.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	24.0%	39.4%	14.1%	3.7%	44.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	15.6%	36.3%	19.1%	—	37.7%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	28.0%	42.8%	9.5%	1.1%	37.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	22.4%	42.5%	16.2%	—	31.1%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	40.6%	25.0%	39.1%	8.3%	4.1%	21.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	14.1%	24.1%	5.8%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	85.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.4886
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	0.3181
IFS HRES	45%	83.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.1998
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-01 06:00	0.1927
IFS Ensemble	26%	80.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0666
ICON	24%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0571
WeatherNext 2	12%	79.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.0151

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗