KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

45%

26%

24%

12%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

WN2NO 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.90u · WN2 −58.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T15:53:40+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	32.7%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-09-30T16:38:52+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	32.7%	63.3%	23.9%
2026-09-30T17:23:59+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	27.8%	63.3%	23.9%
2026-09-30T18:09:08+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	27.8%	63.3%	23.9%
2026-09-30T18:54:15+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	27.8%	63.3%	23.9%
2026-09-30T19:39:23+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	27.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-09-30T20:24:35+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	27.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-09-30T21:09:40+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	27.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-09-30T21:54:47+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	27.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-09-30T22:39:53+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	27.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-09-30T23:24:57+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T00:10:35+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T00:55:52+00:00	72.6%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T01:40:58+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T02:26:05+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T03:11:49+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	22.4%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	20.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	20.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00	69.3%	35.8%	20.8%	53.9%	23.9%
2026-10-01T07:43:20+00:00	67.2%	35.8%	20.8%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T08:28:47+00:00	67.2%	35.8%	20.8%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T09:13:52+00:00	67.2%	35.8%	20.8%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T09:58:56+00:00	67.2%	35.8%	20.8%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T10:44:01+00:00	67.2%	35.8%	20.8%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T11:29:19+00:00	67.2%	25.0%	23.4%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T12:14:31+00:00	67.2%	25.0%	23.4%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T12:59:36+00:00	67.2%	25.0%	23.4%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T13:44:53+00:00	68.1%	25.0%	23.4%	39.5%	23.9%
2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:00	68.1%	25.0%	23.4%	39.4%	23.9%
2026-10-01T15:18:27+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	23.4%	39.4%	23.9%
2026-10-01T16:03:44+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	23.4%	39.4%	23.9%
2026-10-01T16:48:52+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	23.4%	39.4%	23.9%
2026-10-01T17:34:00+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	20.9%	39.4%	23.9%
2026-10-01T18:19:06+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	20.9%	39.4%	23.9%
2026-10-01T19:04:10+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	20.9%	39.4%	23.9%
2026-10-01T19:49:17+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	20.9%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-01T20:34:27+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	20.9%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-01T21:19:33+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	20.9%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-01T22:04:44+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	20.9%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-01T22:49:50+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	20.9%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-01T23:34:55+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	12.3%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-02T00:20:01+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	12.3%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-02T01:05:12+00:00	65.4%	25.8%	12.3%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-02T01:50:31+00:00	69.9%	25.8%	12.3%	44.7%	23.9%
2026-10-02T02:35:42+00:00	69.9%	25.8%	12.3%	44.7%	23.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	85.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.4886
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	0.3181
IFS HRES	45%	83.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.1998
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-01 06:00	0.1927
IFS Ensemble	26%	80.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0666
ICON	24%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0571
WeatherNext 2	12%	79.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.0151

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗