KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

72%

72%

62%

55%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

HRESNO 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.30u · HRES −24.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	99.9%	—	—	93.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	54.8%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	55.0%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.2%	9.3%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	17.1%	5.1%	1.1%	—	62.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	35.0%	8.2%	97.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	56.1%	4.2%	81.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	49.2%	83.2%	77.6%	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	50.0%	81.0%	52.5%	—	57.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	2.5%	76.0%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	5.0%	77.9%	67.0%	—	65.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	54.5%	69.0%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	48.2%	67.0%	70.3%	—	64.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	56.6%	62.1%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	45.1%	64.3%	72.9%	—	64.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	49.0%	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	42.8%	62.2%	69.7%	—	67.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	39.5%	67.4%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	89.1%	29.2%	62.9%	87.5%	—	67.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	36.7%	64.3%	0.0%	—	67.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	32.0%	64.8%	84.0%	3.3%	66.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	37.0%	64.1%	84.8%	—	67.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	41.3%	59.9%	87.6%	7.5%	69.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	43.6%	66.3%	85.7%	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	50.0%	73.9%	86.6%	21.0%	73.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	55.6%	77.9%	93.3%	—	75.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	55.8%	78.8%	97.3%	22.2%	87.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	56.0%	83.8%	96.6%	—	89.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	53.2%	86.6%	95.6%	71.0%	87.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	45.1%	89.3%	92.7%	—	90.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	65.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	64.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	64.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗