KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

72%

72%

62%

55%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

HRESNO 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.30u · HRES −24.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T07:23:57+00:00	19.0%	48.9%	61.1%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-07T08:09:38+00:00	19.0%	48.9%	61.1%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-07T08:54:49+00:00	19.0%	48.9%	61.1%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-07T09:39:56+00:00	19.0%	48.9%	61.1%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-07T10:25:21+00:00	19.0%	48.9%	61.1%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T15:16:22+00:00	17.1%	48.9%	7.8%	16.9%	57.5%
2026-10-08T16:01:36+00:00	17.1%	48.9%	7.8%	16.9%	57.5%
2026-10-08T16:46:42+00:00	17.1%	48.9%	7.8%	16.9%	57.5%
2026-10-08T17:31:47+00:00	17.1%	48.9%	7.8%	16.9%	57.5%
2026-10-08T18:16:53+00:00	17.1%	48.9%	7.8%	16.9%	57.5%
2026-10-08T19:01:57+00:00	17.1%	48.9%	7.8%	16.9%	57.5%
2026-10-08T19:47:08+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	7.8%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-08T20:32:16+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	7.8%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-08T21:17:27+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	7.8%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-08T22:02:34+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	7.8%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-08T22:47:39+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	7.8%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-08T23:32:53+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	31.3%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-09T00:17:59+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	31.3%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-09T01:03:10+00:00	84.3%	48.9%	31.3%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-09T01:48:29+00:00	95.3%	48.9%	31.3%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-09T02:33:37+00:00	95.3%	48.9%	31.3%	39.8%	72.8%
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00	91.8%	63.2%	53.0%	47.9%	66.6%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	91.8%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	66.6%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	91.8%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	66.6%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	91.8%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	66.6%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	91.8%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	66.6%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	96.6%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	96.6%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	96.6%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	96.6%	63.2%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	96.6%	69.8%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	96.6%	69.8%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	96.6%	69.8%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	96.6%	69.8%	63.6%	47.9%	10.8%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	95.3%	69.6%	63.6%	47.9%	10.9%
2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00	95.3%	70.4%	63.6%	47.9%	10.9%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00	95.3%	70.6%	63.6%	47.9%	10.9%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	95.3%	70.6%	63.6%	47.9%	10.9%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00	95.3%	70.6%	71.4%	47.9%	10.9%
2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00	95.3%	70.6%	71.4%	47.9%	10.9%
2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00	95.3%	70.6%	71.4%	47.9%	10.9%
2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	71.4%	47.9%	61.5%
2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	71.4%	47.9%	61.5%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	71.4%	47.9%	61.5%
2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	71.4%	47.9%	61.5%
2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	71.4%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	68.6%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	67.7%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	67.7%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	93.9%	70.6%	67.7%	61.0%	61.5%
2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	67.7%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	67.7%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	67.7%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	67.7%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00	95.9%	70.6%	67.7%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	72.4%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	72.4%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	95.9%	71.9%	72.4%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	96.1%	71.9%	72.4%	55.3%	61.5%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	96.1%	71.7%	72.4%	55.3%	61.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	65.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	64.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	64.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗