KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 09 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

46%

45%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

ICONNO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.20u · ICON −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	13.9%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	3.4%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.0%	71.8%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	70.2%	84.2%	1.4%	—	83.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	6.9%	37.1%	93.8%	—	91.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	80.5%	59.1%	99.0%	—	88.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	1.9%	95.3%	96.9%	—	94.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	86.2%	98.4%	98.6%	—	95.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	15.2%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	91.0%	98.2%	99.9%	—	95.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	90.4%	98.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	87.6%	98.4%	98.4%	—	97.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	91.2%	98.6%	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	93.5%	98.7%	99.4%	—	98.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	94.8%	99.4%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	95.8%	99.5%	99.4%	—	99.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	96.2%	99.6%	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	96.2%	99.7%	99.7%	—	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	96.9%	99.6%	0.0%	—	99.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	96.9%	99.7%	99.8%	89.5%	99.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	97.7%	99.8%	99.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.4%	99.8%	99.9%	90.0%	99.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	97.4%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.7%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.3%	99.9%	99.9%	95.4%	99.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.8%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%	98.1%	100.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	72%	70.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	65.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	65.4°F	9.6°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	61.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	6%	50.9°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 67°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗