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KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 09 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
72%
AIFS
46%
EPS
45%
WN2
18%
ICON
6%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u
VS
ICONNO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.20u · ICON −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:0010-09 07:5110-09 09:2210-09 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:0045.7%45.4%17.8%72.0%5.6%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:0045.7%45.4%17.8%72.0%5.6%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:0045.7%45.4%17.8%72.0%5.6%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:0045.7%45.4%17.8%72.0%5.6%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:0045.7%45.4%17.8%72.0%5.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES72%70.2°F6.3°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
National Blend53%67.0°F7.6°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
AIFS Single46%65.9°F5.6°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%65.4°F9.6°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 218%61.6°F5.3°F2026-10-08 18:00Pending
ICON6%50.9°F9.8°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 67°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗