KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

86%

74%

53%

20%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

WN2NO 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.55u · WN2 −40.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	10.7%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.0%	65.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	63.8%	79.6%	0.9%	—	78.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	4.8%	30.4%	91.3%	—	88.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	74.9%	51.5%	98.4%	—	84.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	1.1%	93.1%	95.2%	—	91.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	81.0%	97.3%	97.7%	—	93.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	10.7%	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	86.9%	96.9%	99.7%	—	92.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	86.0%	97.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	82.2%	97.2%	97.2%	—	95.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	86.8%	97.6%	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	89.8%	97.6%	98.8%	—	97.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	91.6%	98.7%	—	—	98.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	92.9%	99.0%	98.8%	—	98.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	93.5%	99.1%	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	93.4%	99.4%	99.3%	—	98.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	94.3%	99.1%	0.0%	—	98.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	94.3%	99.2%	99.4%	83.2%	98.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	95.5%	99.4%	99.6%	—	98.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	94.8%	99.5%	99.7%	83.4%	99.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	94.7%	99.8%	99.7%	—	99.3%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	96.3%	99.7%	99.7%	91.1%	99.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	97.3%	99.7%	99.7%	—	99.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	98.2%	99.8%	99.9%	95.6%	99.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.7%	99.9%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	98.8%	100.0%	99.9%	99.3%	99.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	81.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	74.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	73.9°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	68.1°F	7.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	63.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗