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KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
86%
ICON
74%
EPS
53%
WN2
20%
Consensus
75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.45u
VS
WN2NO 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.55u · WN2 −40.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-09T19:58:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T19:58:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T19:58:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-09T19:58:59+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-09T19:58:59+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:0010-09 11:3710-09 19:5810-10 03:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:0038.7%41.3%13.3%66.5%4.5%
2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:0038.7%53.1%13.3%66.5%4.5%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:0038.7%53.1%13.3%66.5%4.5%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:0057.8%53.1%13.3%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:0057.8%53.1%13.3%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:0057.8%53.1%13.3%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:0057.8%53.1%13.3%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:0057.8%53.1%19.7%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:0057.8%53.1%19.7%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:0057.8%53.1%19.7%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:0057.8%53.1%19.7%66.5%4.6%
2026-10-09T19:58:59+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:0096.5%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:0099.2%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:0099.2%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:0099.2%53.1%19.7%85.8%74.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%81.0°F5.6°F2026-10-09 18:00Pending
IFS HRES86%74.3°F6.3°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
ICON74%73.9°F9.8°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%68.1°F7.8°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
National Blend53%68.0°F6.6°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%63.3°F4.9°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗