KBOI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

76%

67%

52%

39%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

ICONNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.00u · ICON −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	39.5%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	35.4%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	20.8%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	33.0%	18.0%	1.4%	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	65.7%	83.0%	—	59.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	28.3%	72.4%	77.2%	—	57.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	42.9%	60.3%	70.5%	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	30.0%	74.2%	63.9%	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	0.7%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	32.2%	62.9%	63.7%	—	63.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	35.1%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	40.9%	81.0%	60.9%	—	67.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	41.5%	84.1%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	42.3%	82.3%	68.7%	—	71.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	44.0%	79.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	46.9%	77.3%	64.1%	—	70.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	45.8%	79.5%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	46.7%	80.2%	50.0%	0.0%	75.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	45.5%	81.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	48.8%	80.1%	48.8%	—	71.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	48.8%	80.9%	45.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	56.2%	79.2%	51.2%	29.8%	78.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	57.7%	80.0%	46.1%	—	80.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	54.0%	74.9%	28.4%	28.4%	74.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	59.7%	79.9%	37.7%	—	79.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	72.0%	84.6%	31.8%	42.8%	87.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.4%	70.2%	86.4%	66.2%	—	85.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	56.3%	87.5%	62.4%	46.8%	75.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	50.0%	81.9%	69.0%	—	81.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	74.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗