KBOI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

76%

67%

52%

39%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

ICONNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.00u · ICON −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00	94.1%	45.8%	61.2%	48.1%	58.1%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	94.1%	45.8%	61.2%	48.1%	58.1%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	94.1%	45.8%	75.5%	48.1%	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	94.1%	45.8%	75.5%	48.1%	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	94.1%	45.8%	75.5%	48.1%	58.1%
2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00	92.2%	45.8%	75.5%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	92.2%	45.8%	75.5%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	92.2%	45.8%	75.5%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	92.2%	45.8%	75.5%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00	92.2%	45.8%	75.5%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	92.2%	48.3%	71.7%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	92.2%	48.3%	71.7%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	92.2%	48.3%	71.7%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	85.6%	48.3%	71.7%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	85.1%	48.3%	71.7%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-12T04:01:56+00:00	73.9%	48.3%	49.1%	42.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	73.9%	48.3%	49.1%	42.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	73.9%	48.3%	54.4%	42.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	73.9%	48.3%	54.4%	42.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	73.9%	48.3%	54.4%	42.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00	75.6%	48.3%	54.4%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	75.6%	48.3%	54.4%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	75.6%	48.3%	54.4%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	75.6%	48.3%	54.4%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	75.6%	48.3%	54.4%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	75.6%	48.3%	57.8%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	75.6%	50.0%	57.8%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	75.6%	50.0%	57.8%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	81.0%	50.0%	57.8%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	80.9%	50.0%	57.8%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	80.9%	50.0%	57.8%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	80.9%	42.9%	57.8%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	80.9%	42.9%	46.1%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	80.9%	42.9%	46.1%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	80.9%	42.9%	46.1%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	80.9%	42.9%	46.1%	50.7%	61.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	46.1%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	46.1%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	46.1%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	46.1%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	51.0%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	51.0%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	51.0%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	83.6%	42.9%	51.0%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	83.1%	42.9%	51.0%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	83.1%	42.9%	51.0%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	83.1%	42.9%	51.0%	61.6%	50.7%
2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00	86.1%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	55.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	86.1%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	55.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	86.1%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	55.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	86.1%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	86.1%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	86.1%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	55.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	91.9%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	49.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	91.9%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	49.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	91.9%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	49.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	91.9%	46.7%	56.4%	67.0%	49.0%
2026-10-14T10:34:31+00:00	91.9%	46.7%	56.4%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00	91.9%	48.9%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	91.9%	48.9%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	91.9%	48.9%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	89.5%	48.9%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	89.6%	48.9%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	68.3%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	68.9%	49.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	63.9%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	89.6%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	62.8%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	67.2%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	67.2%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	87.8%	46.8%	67.2%	63.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	88.5%	46.8%	67.2%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	88.5%	46.8%	67.2%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	88.5%	46.8%	67.2%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	88.5%	46.8%	67.2%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	88.5%	46.8%	69.7%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	88.5%	46.8%	69.7%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	88.5%	49.0%	69.7%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	88.5%	49.0%	69.7%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	87.1%	49.0%	69.7%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	87.1%	49.0%	69.7%	67.0%	43.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	90.6%	51.9%	80.5%	70.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:58+00:00	90.6%	51.9%	80.5%	70.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	90.6%	51.9%	80.5%	70.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	90.6%	51.9%	78.5%	70.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	90.6%	51.9%	78.5%	70.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	90.6%	51.9%	78.5%	70.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	78.5%	70.5%	38.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	78.5%	70.5%	38.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	78.5%	70.5%	38.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	78.5%	70.5%	38.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	78.5%	66.6%	38.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	76.5%	66.6%	38.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	76.5%	66.6%	38.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	91.8%	51.9%	76.5%	66.6%	38.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	93.2%	51.9%	76.5%	66.6%	38.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	93.2%	51.9%	76.5%	66.6%	38.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	93.2%	51.9%	76.5%	66.6%	38.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	93.2%	51.9%	76.5%	66.6%	38.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	74.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗