KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

63%

60%

42%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

ICONNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.10u · ICON −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	48.1%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	51.9%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	82.4%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	61.8%	57.0%	2.4%	—	63.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	37.1%	26.0%	58.0%	—	70.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	56.1%	42.4%	45.4%	—	76.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	53.2%	49.2%	29.5%	—	71.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	61.5%	19.5%	42.5%	—	57.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	1.3%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	54.4%	17.8%	43.0%	—	68.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	40.2%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	60.0%	20.9%	20.3%	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	60.3%	17.7%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	67.8%	33.9%	67.0%	—	73.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	44.0%	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	44.9%	20.4%	21.9%	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	57.4%	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	33.1%	30.1%	12.5%	—	61.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	42.2%	38.9%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	39.6%	24.2%	14.0%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	59.5%	23.4%	13.9%	—	42.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	40.1%	40.1%	16.6%	5.5%	57.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	52.6%	43.6%	17.4%	—	66.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	58.0%	42.0%	21.0%	5.7%	60.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	55.6%	51.4%	13.9%	—	61.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	57.2%	51.4%	9.5%	5.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	39.5%	71.5%	14.4%	—	68.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	34.6%	56.3%	10.2%	12.5%	45.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	20.3%	40.2%	19.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	76.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	75.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	73.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗