KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

63%

60%

42%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

ICONNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.10u · ICON −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:56+00:00	23.2%	77.5%	16.1%	72.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	23.2%	77.5%	16.1%	72.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	23.2%	77.5%	12.9%	72.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	23.2%	77.5%	12.9%	72.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	23.2%	77.5%	12.9%	72.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00	36.7%	77.5%	12.9%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	36.7%	77.5%	12.9%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	36.7%	77.5%	12.9%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	36.7%	77.5%	12.9%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	36.7%	77.5%	12.9%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	36.7%	77.5%	12.7%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	36.7%	72.0%	12.7%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	36.7%	72.0%	12.7%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	75.2%	72.0%	12.7%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	75.1%	71.7%	12.8%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	75.1%	71.7%	12.8%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	75.1%	63.5%	12.8%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	75.1%	63.5%	28.5%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	75.1%	63.5%	28.5%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	75.1%	63.5%	28.5%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	75.1%	63.5%	28.5%	75.4%	59.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	68.8%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	59.7%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	59.7%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	59.7%	63.5%	28.5%	80.8%	73.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00	59.6%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	75.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	59.6%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	75.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	59.6%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	75.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	59.6%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	75.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	59.6%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	75.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	59.6%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	75.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	72.1%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	72.1%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	72.1%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	72.1%	75.7%	13.2%	34.5%	66.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:31+00:00	72.1%	75.7%	13.2%	78.2%	66.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00	72.1%	77.1%	45.7%	78.2%	66.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	72.1%	77.1%	45.7%	78.2%	66.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	72.1%	77.1%	45.7%	78.2%	66.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	64.4%	77.1%	45.7%	78.2%	66.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	64.4%	77.1%	45.7%	78.2%	67.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	72.9%	76.0%	43.6%	78.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	72.9%	76.0%	43.6%	78.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	72.9%	76.0%	59.6%	78.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	72.9%	76.0%	59.6%	78.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	72.9%	76.0%	59.6%	78.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	70.4%	76.0%	59.6%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	70.4%	76.0%	59.6%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	70.4%	76.0%	59.6%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	70.4%	76.0%	59.6%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	70.4%	76.0%	55.9%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	70.4%	76.0%	55.9%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	70.4%	75.8%	55.9%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	70.4%	75.8%	55.9%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	62.8%	75.6%	55.9%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	62.8%	75.6%	55.9%	79.0%	74.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	64.6%	76.7%	48.8%	62.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	64.6%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	64.6%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	64.6%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	65.3%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	65.3%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	65.3%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	65.3%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	65.3%	76.7%	51.2%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	65.3%	74.7%	52.6%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	65.3%	74.7%	52.6%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	65.3%	74.7%	52.6%	62.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:54+00:00	61.6%	74.7%	52.6%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	61.6%	74.6%	52.6%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	61.6%	75.4%	52.6%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:58+00:00	61.6%	75.5%	52.6%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	61.6%	75.5%	52.6%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	61.6%	75.5%	51.3%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	61.6%	75.5%	51.3%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	61.6%	75.5%	51.3%	64.3%	29.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	51.3%	64.3%	36.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	51.3%	64.3%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	51.3%	64.3%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	51.3%	64.3%	36.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	51.3%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:23+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	39.8%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	51.3%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	51.3%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	67.1%	75.5%	51.3%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	75.3%	75.5%	51.3%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	75.3%	75.5%	51.3%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	75.3%	75.5%	51.3%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	75.3%	75.5%	51.3%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	75.3%	75.5%	51.3%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	75.3%	78.3%	62.1%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	75.3%	78.3%	62.1%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	75.3%	78.3%	62.1%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	79.1%	78.3%	62.1%	59.6%	27.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	79.2%	77.9%	62.1%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	79.2%	79.7%	62.1%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	79.2%	79.7%	62.1%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	79.2%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	79.2%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	79.2%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	79.2%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	77.7%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	60.8%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	78.4%	79.7%	63.4%	59.6%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	76.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	75.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	73.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗