KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

92%

86%

86%

83%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 87.5¢Risks 21.88u

ICONNO 12.5¢Risks 3.12u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +3.12u · ICON −3.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	4.9%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	59.7%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.8%	55.4%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	64.4%	90.1%	2.4%	—	86.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	57.3%	36.4%	71.5%	—	73.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	80.5%	90.3%	28.9%	—	48.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.2%	95.0%	78.8%	—	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	59.1%	90.3%	0.7%	—	91.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	20.1%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	73.8%	91.3%	97.1%	—	93.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	64.1%	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	65.3%	95.0%	83.4%	—	91.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	43.4%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	87.4%	95.8%	96.2%	—	96.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	84.2%	97.0%	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	90.1%	91.4%	97.9%	—	96.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	92.8%	93.5%	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	94.7%	97.1%	95.5%	0.0%	98.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	95.5%	98.5%	0.0%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	94.6%	98.8%	86.0%	79.3%	98.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	94.8%	98.6%	91.3%	—	99.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	97.5%	99.5%	88.8%	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	96.3%	99.2%	98.2%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	96.5%	99.5%	92.1%	73.9%	99.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	97.0%	99.6%	95.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	98.2%	99.7%	87.8%	89.8%	99.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.5%	99.8%	96.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.9%	99.9%	96.6%	98.2%	99.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.1%	99.8%	96.9%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	77.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	76.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	74.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	75.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗