KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

92%

86%

86%

83%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 87.5¢Risks 21.88u

ICONNO 12.5¢Risks 3.12u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +3.12u · ICON −3.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:21+00:00	14.3%	77.9%	38.1%	91.7%	74.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	14.3%	77.9%	19.9%	91.7%	74.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	14.3%	77.9%	19.9%	91.7%	74.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	14.3%	77.9%	19.9%	91.7%	74.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	14.3%	77.9%	19.9%	91.7%	74.7%
2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00	23.7%	77.9%	19.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	23.7%	77.9%	19.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	23.7%	77.9%	19.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	23.7%	77.9%	19.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	23.7%	74.2%	43.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	23.7%	74.2%	43.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	23.7%	74.2%	43.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	23.7%	74.2%	43.9%	64.3%	73.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	22.5%	74.2%	43.9%	64.3%	74.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	22.5%	71.9%	43.9%	64.3%	74.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00	4.8%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	87.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	4.8%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	87.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	4.8%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	87.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	4.8%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	87.5%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	4.8%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	87.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	4.8%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	87.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	2.6%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	7.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	2.6%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	7.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	2.6%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	7.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	2.6%	71.9%	22.3%	34.0%	7.0%
2026-10-14T10:34:31+00:00	2.6%	71.9%	22.3%	60.9%	7.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00	2.6%	78.0%	40.4%	60.9%	7.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	2.6%	78.0%	40.4%	60.9%	7.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	2.6%	78.0%	40.4%	60.9%	7.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	79.6%	78.0%	40.4%	60.9%	7.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	79.5%	78.0%	40.4%	60.9%	7.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	95.4%	77.8%	83.5%	93.4%	73.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	95.4%	77.8%	83.5%	93.4%	73.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	95.4%	77.8%	87.4%	93.4%	73.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	95.4%	77.8%	87.4%	93.4%	73.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	95.4%	77.8%	87.4%	93.4%	73.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	85.7%	77.8%	87.4%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	85.7%	77.8%	87.4%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	85.7%	77.8%	87.4%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	85.7%	77.8%	87.4%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	85.7%	77.8%	86.5%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	85.7%	77.8%	86.5%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	85.7%	86.3%	86.5%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	85.7%	86.3%	86.5%	92.2%	83.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	91.8%	86.3%	86.5%	92.2%	82.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	91.8%	86.3%	86.5%	92.2%	82.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	77.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	76.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	74.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	75.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗