KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

58%

56%

42%

21%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

ICONNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.00u · ICON −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	14.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.4%	52.1%	0.1%	—	45.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	13.6%	5.1%	23.7%	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	31.6%	48.5%	2.9%	—	8.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	59.5%	27.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	10.8%	43.4%	0.0%	—	45.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	1.0%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	18.4%	43.0%	63.7%	—	47.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	11.2%	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	11.0%	50.9%	25.9%	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	3.4%	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	28.7%	51.0%	52.9%	—	55.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	22.6%	55.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	30.3%	33.0%	59.2%	—	47.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	34.5%	36.5%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	38.2%	48.9%	41.3%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	38.9%	57.8%	0.0%	—	61.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	33.1%	58.1%	16.8%	11.0%	55.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	31.4%	53.6%	22.5%	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	41.3%	64.6%	16.6%	—	64.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	31.4%	56.4%	43.6%	—	65.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	29.5%	59.3%	17.3%	4.3%	59.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	28.8%	56.9%	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	33.1%	60.1%	8.3%	10.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	78.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	76.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	74.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗