KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

58%

56%

42%

21%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

ICONNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.00u · ICON −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	77.7%	39.4%	62.1%	61.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	77.7%	41.8%	62.1%	61.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	77.7%	41.8%	62.1%	61.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	77.7%	41.8%	60.8%	61.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	77.7%	41.8%	60.8%	61.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	77.7%	41.8%	60.8%	61.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	60.8%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	60.8%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	60.8%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	60.8%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	60.8%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	58.2%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	58.2%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	58.2%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	58.2%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	58.2%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	58.2%	56.4%	20.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	75.3%	41.8%	58.2%	56.4%	20.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	78.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	76.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	74.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗