KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

80%

79%

69%

38%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.15u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.85u · ICON −38.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.9%	1.8%	0.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	38.5%	2.9%	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	0.1%	3.9%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	4.9%	41.3%	—	20.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	30.8%	0.4%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.0%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	27.7%	10.5%	—	14.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.6%	34.2%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	26.6%	14.9%	8.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	17.7%	21.0%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	31.3%	17.7%	30.4%	—	39.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	17.7%	8.8%	—	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	19.7%	24.3%	27.6%	0.0%	56.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	27.9%	38.5%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	41.3%	47.8%	33.1%	—	61.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	32.6%	43.3%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	41.9%	41.9%	28.0%	0.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	24.4%	47.6%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	35.4%	50.0%	35.4%	15.1%	84.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	46.1%	36.1%	39.8%	—	86.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	35.6%	50.0%	34.3%	18.2%	83.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	20.1%	52.8%	39.0%	—	86.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	29.3%	34.5%	30.5%	23.4%	89.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	33.8%	23.6%	—	88.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	77.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	76.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	72.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 01:29 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗