KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

80%

79%

69%

38%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.15u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.85u · ICON −38.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	3.1%	45.9%	0.5%	0.3%	48.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	3.1%	45.9%	0.5%	0.3%	48.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	1.9%	43.2%	1.1%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	1.9%	43.2%	1.1%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	1.9%	43.2%	1.1%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	1.1%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	1.1%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	1.1%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	1.1%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	1.1%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	37.6%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:34+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	6.2%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	5.7%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	5.7%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	8.5%	43.2%	5.7%	56.6%	4.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	3.4%	43.2%	5.7%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	3.4%	43.2%	5.7%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	3.4%	43.2%	5.7%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	3.4%	43.2%	5.7%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	3.4%	43.2%	4.9%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	3.4%	43.2%	4.9%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	3.4%	58.9%	4.9%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	3.4%	58.9%	4.9%	64.2%	0.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	17.2%	58.9%	4.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	17.2%	58.9%	4.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:39+00:00	17.2%	59.0%	4.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	17.2%	59.0%	4.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	17.2%	59.0%	7.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	17.2%	59.0%	7.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	17.2%	59.0%	7.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	17.2%	59.0%	7.9%	64.2%	1.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	22.2%	59.0%	7.9%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	22.2%	59.0%	7.9%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	22.2%	59.0%	7.9%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	22.2%	59.0%	7.9%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	22.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00	22.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	22.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	6.6%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	15.2%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	20.4%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	20.4%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	20.4%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	20.4%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	20.4%	59.0%	11.7%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	20.4%	69.8%	7.0%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	20.4%	69.8%	7.0%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	20.4%	69.8%	7.0%	33.3%	9.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:54+00:00	29.3%	69.8%	7.0%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	29.3%	69.7%	7.0%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	29.3%	71.2%	7.0%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:58+00:00	29.3%	71.2%	7.0%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	29.3%	71.2%	7.0%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	29.3%	71.2%	14.7%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	29.3%	71.2%	14.7%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	29.3%	71.2%	14.7%	15.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	14.7%	15.4%	41.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	14.7%	15.4%	41.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	14.7%	15.4%	41.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	14.7%	15.4%	41.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	14.7%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	37.2%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	36.3%	71.2%	30.5%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	78.0%	71.2%	30.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	78.0%	71.2%	30.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	78.0%	71.2%	30.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	78.0%	71.2%	30.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	78.0%	71.2%	30.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	78.0%	75.7%	53.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	78.0%	75.7%	53.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	78.0%	75.7%	53.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	78.7%	75.7%	53.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	78.7%	75.4%	53.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	78.7%	76.5%	53.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	78.7%	76.5%	53.5%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	78.7%	76.5%	68.3%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	78.7%	76.5%	68.3%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	78.7%	76.5%	68.3%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	78.7%	76.5%	68.3%	52.7%	37.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	68.3%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	68.3%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	68.3%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	68.3%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	71.3%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	55.9%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	71.4%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	71.4%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	71.4%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	78.0%	76.5%	71.4%	62.3%	25.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00	84.4%	76.5%	71.4%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	84.4%	76.5%	71.4%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	84.4%	76.5%	71.4%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	84.4%	76.5%	71.4%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00	84.4%	80.1%	68.6%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	84.4%	80.1%	68.6%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	84.4%	80.1%	68.6%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	84.4%	80.1%	68.6%	80.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	68.6%	80.3%	37.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	77.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	76.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	72.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 01:29 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗