KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

89%

85%

80%

67%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 80.75u

EPSNO 19.2¢Risks 19.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.25u · EPS −19.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	30.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	5.4%	3.2%	0.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.0%	0.0%	29.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	0.1%	1.7%	5.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	29.5%	31.6%	10.4%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	27.9%	24.5%	16.8%	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	3.1%	15.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	30.7%	8.6%	52.6%	—	75.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	58.0%	19.6%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	67.0%	5.8%	11.9%	—	78.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	82.3%	65.7%	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	79.7%	82.3%	30.4%	—	81.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	74.3%	78.1%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	67.9%	78.8%	15.1%	—	83.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	66.5%	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	59.7%	84.5%	36.1%	—	89.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	32.6%	85.2%	0.0%	—	87.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	20.7%	91.0%	75.8%	0.0%	85.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	45.2%	92.6%	73.7%	—	84.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	68.0%	94.8%	43.8%	53.7%	87.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	95.1%	46.1%	—	88.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	93.9%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	79.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	77.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	76.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	75.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	74.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗