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KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
94%
HRES
89%
ICON
85%
WN2
80%
EPS
67%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 80.75u
VS
EPSNO 19.2¢Risks 19.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.25u · EPS −19.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:38+00:0090.4%57.2%65.6%64.8%77.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0090.4%57.2%74.0%64.8%77.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0090.4%57.2%74.0%64.8%77.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0090.4%57.2%74.0%64.8%77.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0090.4%57.2%74.0%64.8%77.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:0094.4%57.2%74.0%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0094.4%57.2%74.0%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0094.4%57.2%74.0%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0094.4%57.2%74.0%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:0094.4%67.6%80.5%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:0094.4%67.6%80.5%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:0094.4%67.6%80.5%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0094.4%67.6%80.5%88.6%84.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0094.4%67.1%80.5%88.7%84.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single94%79.3°F4.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES89%77.9°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON85%76.6°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%75.4°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend71%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble67%74.8°F5.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%73.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗