KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

49%

45%

43%

15%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	11.4%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	1.1%	0.5%	0.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	10.3%	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	9.0%	10.0%	2.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	7.7%	6.3%	3.6%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.3%	3.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	8.3%	1.2%	20.8%	—	43.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	24.2%	3.9%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	31.4%	0.6%	1.8%	—	44.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	49.0%	29.2%	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	44.2%	48.0%	6.8%	—	47.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	36.3%	41.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	28.5%	40.8%	1.9%	—	47.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	26.2%	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	19.8%	46.7%	7.3%	—	56.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	5.7%	46.6%	0.0%	—	51.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	2.4%	57.0%	32.0%	0.0%	45.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	9.2%	59.5%	28.3%	—	42.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	21.7%	64.6%	8.0%	12.4%	46.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	63.9%	8.2%	—	46.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	78.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	75.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗