KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

49%

45%

43%

15%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:03+00:00	74.4%	37.2%	37.2%	62.3%	51.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	74.4%	38.1%	37.2%	62.3%	51.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	74.4%	38.1%	37.2%	62.3%	51.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	74.4%	38.1%	29.7%	62.3%	51.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	74.4%	38.1%	29.7%	62.3%	51.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	74.4%	38.1%	29.7%	62.3%	51.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	29.7%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	29.7%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	29.7%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	29.7%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	29.7%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	68.0%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:25+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	32.8%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	40.6%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	40.6%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	65.5%	38.1%	40.6%	50.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	70.6%	38.1%	40.6%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	70.6%	38.1%	40.6%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	70.6%	38.1%	40.6%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	70.6%	38.1%	40.6%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	70.6%	38.1%	40.6%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	70.6%	46.2%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	70.6%	46.2%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	70.6%	46.2%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	64.4%	46.2%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	64.5%	46.2%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	42.3%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	53.9%	17.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	64.5%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	29.2%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	36.1%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	36.1%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	69.8%	48.1%	36.1%	45.1%	2.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	69.5%	48.1%	36.1%	45.1%	14.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	69.5%	48.1%	36.1%	45.1%	14.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	69.5%	48.1%	36.1%	45.1%	14.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	69.5%	48.1%	36.1%	45.1%	14.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	69.5%	44.6%	43.2%	48.9%	14.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	69.5%	44.6%	43.2%	48.9%	14.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	69.5%	44.6%	43.2%	48.9%	14.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	69.5%	44.6%	43.2%	48.9%	14.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	69.5%	44.6%	43.2%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	69.5%	44.6%	43.2%	48.9%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	78.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	75.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗