KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

78%

72%

67%

57%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 77.5¢Risks 77.55u

WN2NO 22.5¢Risks 22.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.45u · WN2 −22.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	96.0%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	86.7%	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	0.4%	36.7%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	70.8%	17.1%	3.9%	—	69.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	36.4%	86.9%	86.5%	—	82.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	93.2%	33.0%	39.4%	—	78.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	86.9%	70.5%	97.1%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	94.2%	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	81.6%	85.2%	39.3%	—	96.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	26.7%	83.3%	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	89.1%	83.9%	95.7%	—	87.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	97.4%	83.4%	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	62.7%	99.9%	43.6%	—	90.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	89.1%	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	64.3%	99.6%	83.5%	—	95.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	57.0%	100.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	92.2%	100.0%	98.8%	—	98.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	92.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	92.7%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	100.0%	0.5%	—	98.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	74.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	70.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	66.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	67.6°F	11.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	63.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗