KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

78%

72%

67%

57%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 77.5¢Risks 77.55u

WN2NO 22.5¢Risks 22.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.45u · WN2 −22.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	95.1%	55.6%	49.2%	31.8%	13.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:35+00:00	95.1%	55.6%	49.2%	31.8%	13.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	95.1%	66.0%	49.2%	31.8%	13.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	95.1%	66.0%	49.2%	31.8%	13.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	97.7%	66.0%	49.2%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	97.7%	66.0%	49.2%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	97.7%	66.8%	49.2%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	97.7%	66.8%	49.2%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	97.7%	66.8%	72.9%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	97.7%	66.8%	72.9%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	97.7%	66.8%	72.9%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	97.7%	66.8%	72.9%	32.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	90.3%	66.8%	72.9%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	90.3%	66.8%	72.9%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	90.3%	66.8%	72.9%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	90.3%	66.8%	72.9%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	90.3%	66.8%	57.0%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00	90.3%	66.8%	57.0%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	90.3%	66.8%	57.0%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	98.1%	66.8%	57.0%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	98.1%	66.8%	57.0%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	98.1%	66.8%	57.0%	72.3%	78.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	98.1%	66.8%	57.0%	72.3%	78.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	74.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	70.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	66.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	67.6°F	11.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	63.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗