KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

76%

63%

39%

21%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.05u · ICON −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	68.7%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	42.2%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	0.0%	4.5%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	19.4%	0.9%	0.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	3.5%	36.4%	35.7%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	48.5%	2.4%	3.6%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	31.6%	14.5%	61.8%	—	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	47.5%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	21.9%	26.5%	2.6%	—	57.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	1.0%	22.6%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	29.9%	22.1%	48.2%	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	55.4%	20.2%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	6.3%	91.4%	2.2%	—	29.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	25.3%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	5.6%	76.8%	16.5%	—	40.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	3.4%	97.5%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	25.9%	93.9%	58.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	23.6%	95.0%	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	23.0%	92.7%	69.9%	88.6%	60.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	97.3%	0.0%	—	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	75.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	73.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗