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KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
85%
HRES
76%
WN2
63%
AIFS
39%
ICON
21%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u
VS
ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.05u · ICON −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:0055.6%88.1%40.6%55.4%32.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0055.6%88.1%40.6%55.4%32.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0055.6%88.1%64.0%55.4%32.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0055.6%88.1%64.0%55.4%32.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0055.6%88.1%64.0%55.4%32.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:0039.3%88.1%64.0%55.4%20.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0039.3%88.1%64.0%55.4%20.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0039.3%88.1%64.0%55.4%20.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0039.3%88.1%64.0%55.4%20.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:0039.3%85.0%62.6%76.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:0039.3%85.0%62.6%76.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0039.3%85.0%62.6%76.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0039.3%85.0%62.6%76.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0039.3%85.1%62.7%76.0%20.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0039.3%85.1%62.7%76.0%20.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble85%75.1°F4.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES76%73.4°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 263%71.5°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%71.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend55%71.0°F4.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single39%69.4°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON21%67.6°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗