KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

90%

68%

58%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.2¢Risks 79.20u

HRESNO 20.8¢Risks 20.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.80u · HRES −20.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	96.4%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	92.7%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	51.3%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	43.7%	31.1%	12.2%	—	61.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	47.1%	61.6%	29.7%	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	16.9%	60.6%	25.1%	—	46.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	69.2%	86.4%	93.3%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	1.7%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	97.3%	96.7%	87.5%	—	66.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	93.6%	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	90.3%	97.5%	81.0%	—	50.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	80.4%	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	73.4%	97.7%	55.5%	—	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	84.1%	97.4%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	79.7%	97.5%	62.4%	—	53.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	75.9%	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	92.9%	96.5%	89.7%	—	71.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	77.2%	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	91.5%	67.9%	78.7%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	83.9%	63.3%	2.2%	—	60.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	92.4%	76.7%	86.0%	—	70.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	92.6%	90.3%	88.6%	—	74.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	96.7%	90.0%	84.1%	32.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	93.2%	90.8%	76.2%	—	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	98.1%	98.1%	80.9%	36.8%	64.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	95.3%	96.8%	86.1%	—	66.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	95.3%	99.3%	87.8%	45.7%	68.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	92.5%	99.0%	85.6%	—	57.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	81.9%	99.2%	82.9%	50.0%	65.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	84.0%	98.6%	93.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	59.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	57.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	90%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	53.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	52.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	51.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	51.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 51°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗