KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

90%

68%

58%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.2¢Risks 79.20u

HRESNO 20.8¢Risks 20.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.80u · HRES −20.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:08+00:00	74.8%	56.3%	95.6%	90.6%	80.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	74.8%	56.3%	95.6%	90.3%	80.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	74.8%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	80.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	74.8%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	80.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	74.8%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	80.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	74.8%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	80.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	77.3%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	97.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	77.3%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	97.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:46+00:00	77.3%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	97.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	77.3%	56.3%	95.8%	90.3%	97.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	77.3%	56.3%	98.1%	87.7%	97.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	77.3%	56.3%	98.0%	88.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	77.3%	56.3%	98.0%	88.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	70.0%	56.3%	98.0%	88.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	70.0%	56.3%	98.0%	88.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00	70.0%	56.3%	98.0%	88.1%	97.7%
2026-10-17T04:40:44+00:00	95.9%	43.1%	99.9%	57.7%	90.3%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	95.9%	43.1%	99.9%	57.7%	90.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	95.9%	43.1%	99.9%	57.7%	90.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	95.9%	43.1%	99.9%	57.7%	90.3%
2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00	95.7%	43.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	95.7%	43.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00	95.7%	43.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	95.7%	43.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	95.7%	43.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	95.7%	68.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	95.7%	68.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	95.7%	68.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	96.2%	68.1%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	96.2%	67.8%	99.9%	58.5%	90.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	59.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	57.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	90%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	53.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	52.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	51.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	51.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 51°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗