KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

89%

83%

68%

56%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.5¢Risks 77.50u

EPSNO 22.5¢Risks 22.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.50u · EPS −22.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	83.9%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	76.9%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	20.8%	84.9%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.6%	80.6%	85.9%	28.1%	—	65.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	89.7%	81.6%	29.1%	—	40.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	21.6%	75.5%	19.5%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	37.5%	80.5%	30.1%	—	23.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	3.6%	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	23.8%	25.1%	37.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	23.9%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	10.5%	20.2%	52.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	20.9%	22.2%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	16.6%	21.6%	45.4%	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	21.0%	37.9%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	22.5%	22.5%	30.4%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	11.4%	23.4%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	13.4%	21.2%	25.1%	0.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	27.1%	22.0%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	26.4%	19.8%	28.2%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	37.8%	20.6%	0.1%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	32.0%	26.0%	22.4%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	46.4%	13.2%	26.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	43.8%	15.9%	30.9%	13.0%	4.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	39.8%	28.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	83%	71.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	65.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗