KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

89%

83%

68%

56%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.5¢Risks 77.50u

EPSNO 22.5¢Risks 22.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.50u · EPS −22.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:24+00:00	89.7%	49.2%	95.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	89.7%	49.2%	95.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	89.7%	49.2%	95.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	89.7%	49.2%	95.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	89.7%	49.2%	95.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	89.7%	55.3%	97.2%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	89.7%	55.3%	97.2%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	89.7%	55.3%	97.2%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	91.7%	55.3%	97.2%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	91.7%	55.3%	97.2%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:10+00:00	91.7%	56.2%	97.2%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	91.7%	56.2%	97.2%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	91.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	91.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	91.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	91.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	48.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	93.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	82.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	93.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	82.8%
2026-10-13T21:42:46+00:00	93.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	82.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	93.7%	56.2%	98.0%	64.7%	82.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	93.7%	56.2%	98.8%	67.6%	82.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	93.7%	56.2%	98.8%	67.6%	82.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	93.7%	56.2%	98.8%	67.6%	82.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	88.7%	56.2%	98.8%	67.6%	82.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	88.7%	56.2%	98.8%	67.6%	82.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00	88.7%	56.2%	98.8%	67.6%	82.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	83%	71.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	65.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗